MORNING BID AMERICAS-No Easter truce

By Mike Dolan

April 2 -

What matters in U.S. and global markets today

By Mike Dolan, Editor-at-Large, Finance and Markets

Market hopes that President Trump might signal an immediate end to the Iran conflict were dashed overnight after his prime-time address talked of another two to three weeks of war and offered few new details.

Another risk-off turn was the result, with oil prices pushing back higher, global stocks retreating and the dollar edging up.

I’ll get into that and more below.

But first, check out my latest column on the real economy's apparent resilience to the oil shock so far - plus a closer read of the latest macro releases.

And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week.

NO EASTER TRUCE

Brent crude climbed back to almost $109 per barrel and WTI to just over $107 on Thursday after Trump’s televised speech, in which he said the U.S. military had nearly achieved its goals in Iran but would “hit them” over the coming weeks and “bring them back to the Stone Ages”.

Although Trump noted that “discussions are ongoing”, he gave little detail on access through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

Asian stock indexes ended the session in negative territory, with Japan’s Nikkei down 2.4% and South Korea’s Kospi sliding 4.7%. European shares slid by around 1% after the open, while U.S. futures were in the red before the bell.

Meantime, the dollar index edged up after two days of losses, regaining the 100 level as safe-haven demand reemerged, while gold eased back from the two-week highs it touched on Wednesday’s glimmers of hope. U.S. Treasuries were also down.

Investors are heading into a long Easter weekend with a degree of nervousness about what happens next. Adding to the tension, Good Friday will see the release of the March U.S. employment report, which will give another read on any real-economy impact.

For now, though, early prints of March economic data point to less of a shock than many expected. ISM’s manufacturing survey ticked higher, U.S. consumer confidence rose unexpectedly, private sector payrolls beat forecasts and full-year corporate earnings growth estimates are actually increasing.

Maybe the hit will come with a delay, but for now the picture is one of steep input price rises and resilient activity - which will keep central banks on their toes.

Elsewhere, as NASA heads back around the moon for the first time in half a century, Elon Musk’s SpaceX finally filed for an initial public offering - which could become the largest in history, and a test of investor appetite for big-ticket risk assets against an unsettled market backdrop.

Meantime, Amazon is in talks to buy satellite telecom group Globalstar as it ramps up efforts to build its own low-earth-orbit satellite business to rival SpaceX's Starlink, the Financial Times reported.

Chart of the day

Air travel in and out of the United Arab Emirates is only slowly recovering from the initial shock of the Iran war, with Trump indicating overnight that there would likely be two to three weeks more of the conflict.

Today's events to watch

U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 a.m. EDT), February trade balance (8:30 a.m. EDT)

Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan speaks (10:15 a.m. EDT)

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