LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 at a crossroads: Relief rally meets key moving average

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

S&P 500 AT A CROSSROADS: RELIEF RALLY MEETS KEY MOVING AVERAGE

U.S. stock index futures are lower on Tuesday, after a relief rally in the previous session, as renewed doubts over easing Middle East tensions are weighing on sentiment.

Of note, on Monday, the S&P 500 .SPX was able to mount a rally off a couple of important Fibonacci-based support levels. However, a closely followed long-term moving average is proving to be an initial hurdle on the upside.

Indeed, on Friday, the S&P 500 tested support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-January 2026 advance at 6,490.81. Meanwhile, the rising 233-day moving average (DMA) also resided at 6,490. The SPX hit an intraday low of 6,473.52, before firming slightly to end at 6,506.48.

At Friday's intraday low, the SPX was down 7.24% from its record closing high, and down 7.55% from its January 28 record intraday high. The benchmark index finished Friday, down 6.77% from its record finish.

With Monday's bounce, the index attempted to reclaim its rising 200-DMA, which was around 6,625. The SPX rose as high as 6,651.62 before selling back to end at 6,581, which was just above a confluence of support lines at around 6,550.

Thus, to add confidence in the upside reversal, bulls want to see the S&P 500 reclaim its 200-DMA, which should ascend to around 6,630 on Tuesday, on a closing basis.

A push above the 6,754.30 March 17 high can break the pattern of declining peaks and troughs just since the late-February high.

On a close below the 6,500-6,473.52 zone, the next support is in the 6,360-6,343 area. However, stronger support is in the 6,212-6,100 area.

This zone includes the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-January 2026 advance at 6,174.39. A decline to this level would put the SPX down 11.5% from its record close.

(Terence Gabriel)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

CHINESE EV AND BATTERY NAMES ARE OIL SHOCK WINNERS, SAY HSBC CLICK HERE

LUXURY IN 'SLOW TROT' AS TOURISM AND MIDDLE EAST RISK BITE CLICK HERE

STOXX STRUGGLES FOR DIRECTION AFTER WILD MONDAY SWINGS CLICK HERE

BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPEAN FUTURES VOLATILE, EYES ON PUIG, SAP DOWNGRADED CLICK HERE

LITTLE RELIEF FROM TRUMP CLICK HERE