BREAKINGVIEWS-Gulf crisis worsens global missile supply crunch

By George Hay

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The Gulf crisis is demonstrating the critical importance of air defence - but also its fragile supply chain. As of Wednesday, the United Arab Emirates had used hi-tech weaponry like Patriot PAC-3 interceptors to shoot down almost all of the 189 ballistic missiles lobbed its way by Iran, though smaller Shahed drones slipped through. Without such a stout defence, damage to Dubai and Abu Dhabi would have been much worse. The immediate issue is whether Gulf states run out of defensive firepower before Tehran expends its offensive arsenal. It's a microcosm of a global air-defence supply crunch.

University of Oslo academic Fabian Hoffmann estimates that Iran could have up to 3,000 ballistic missiles, with more short-range than medium-range ones. According to his analysis of open-source documents, the UAE could have had about 1,000 interceptors - which refers to defensive rockets or projectiles that can counter incoming threats - though it likely had less. Since it can take at least two interceptors to be confident of downing a missile, Gulf states’ arsenals might in theory be exhausted if Iran kept firing for a prolonged period.

Granted, Qatari and UAE authorities have rubbished the idea they're running low. And it’s hard to know the true size of any country’s arsenal. Governments closely guard inventories, and public procurement data isn't necessarily helpful, because items could be sold abroad, retired or used for training.

Another question is whether Tehran can keep up its initial launch tempo. American and Israeli bombing has wiped out many of Iran's Transporter Erector Launchers, which it needs to fire missiles. Without them, the barrage on the Gulf would have to slow, as it already has done markedly since Saturday.

What’s clear is that the current conflict exacerbates an already problematic supply bottleneck for air-defence systems. A root cause is that PAC-3s and other interceptors, such as THAAD and PAC-2, are made by U.S. defence giants like Lockheed Martin LMT.N and RTX RTX.N, which are unaccustomed to quickly hiking production. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the U.S. had 1,600 PAC-3s in 2022. Lockheed, which makes them, says it will hike annual production from about 600 in 2025 to 2,000 over seven years.

That may not be enough to guard against a depletion of current stocks in the face of soaring demand. The U.S. itself may want thousands of interceptors to bolster its defensive posture vis-à-vis China, Hoffmann reckons. After being hit so hard, Gulf states like the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are likely to demand more. It raises the risk that European rearmament, and Ukraine’s plight in particular, falls down the list of priorities for global defence suppliers. At the very least, shortages could raise costs. Waiting times for new Patriot interceptors are already 2 to 3 years, Hoffmann estimates.

If the queue is now longer, and full of wealthy Gulf states with U.S. President Donald Trump's ear, the current crisis will have consequences for global defence that go far beyond Dubai.

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CONTEXT NEWS

The United Arab Emirates said on March 4 that it had since March 1 intercepted 175 of the 189 ballistic missiles launched at its territory by Iran. It added that 13 had impacted in the sea, with one hitting land.

The UAE said it had intercepted all eight Cruise missiles launched in the same time frame, and 876 of the 941 unmanned aerial vehicles that had been fired.

In a statement on March 3, the UAE said it possesses "diverse, integrated, and multi-layered air defense systems capable of countering a full spectrum of aerial threats with high efficiency. These long-, medium-, and short-range systems provide comprehensive protection of the nation’s airspace".

"The UAE also maintains a robust strategic stockpile of munitions, ensuring sustained interception and response capabilities over extended periods, while preserving full operational readiness to safeguard national security and sovereignty," it added.