LIVE MARKETS-Tariff field may be muddied, but UBS sees rates falling

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

TARIFF FIELD MAY BE MUDDIED, BUT UBS SEES RATES FALLING

The Supreme Court's Friday ruling against President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs that he pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, and then Trump's reactions to the decision, left investors uncertain about where tariffs will ultimately settle and what the impact will be on the global economy.

The resulting rally on Friday turned into a selloff on Monday and a bounce back on Tuesday.

But despite the uncertainty, UBS says it is not changing its expectations for tariffs, according to a research note led by Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS chief investment officer for the Americas and global head of equities.

Hoffmann-Burchardi writes that they expect the overall effective U.S. tariff rate to decline to 10-15% this year with the reasoning that "Trump’s tariff authority is more constrained."

And she suggests that the "lower tariff rate should improve US household spending power and limit inflation concerns at the margin."

But, if the latest headlines are anything to go by, it will likely take some time to get to the finish line of tariff clarity, wherever that ends up being.

For example, a White House official said that the United States began collecting a temporary new 10% global import tariff on Tuesday, but the Trump administration was working to increase it to 15%.

And European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said on Tuesday that the EU is facing a "transitional period" of a few months in U.S. relations after a new "import surcharge" from Trump, which threatens to undermine the trade deal the two sides struck last year.

Also, British trade minister Peter Kyle said he was confident a trade deal Britain struck last year with the United States would still stand despite Trump's latest moves.

(Sinéad Carew)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

GETTING ALL YOUR DUCKS IN A ROW, OR IN THIS CASE, YOUR CROPS CLICK HERE

TWOFER TUESDAY: BRIGHTER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, COOLER HOME PRICE GROWTH CLICK HERE

WALL STREET INDEXES RISE WITH AI IN FOCUS AGAIN CLICK HERE

S&P 500 CORRALLED BY MOVING AVERAGES, TRADERS AWAIT BREAKOUT CLICK HERE

THE CASE FOR BRITAIN'S SMALL- AND MID-CAPS CLICK HERE

ITALIAN DEBT THE AI WINNER CLICK HERE

THE HALO EFFECT: INVESTORS ROTATING TOWARD PHYSICAL ASSETS CLICK HERE

TRUMP MIGHT BECOME LESS AGGRESSIVE ON TARIFFS CLICK HERE

STOXX SOFT, BANKS WEIGH CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: EDGING HIGHER CLICK HERE

TRUMP FUMES AGAINST THE WORLD AS HIS TARIFFS COME UP SHORT CLICK HERE