LIVE MARKETS-Twofer Tuesday: Brighter consumer confidence, cooler home price growth

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

TWOFER TUESDAY: BRIGHTER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, COOLER HOME PRICE GROWTH

Economic data, for some reason, often arrives in twos on Tuesdays. And today investors had their pick between an improved consumer confidence reading and a Case-Shiller report that shows home price growth lagging core inflation.

The mood of the American consumer, who shoulders about 70% of the U.S. economy, has brightened more than expected this month.

The Conference Board's (CB) consumer confidence index USCONC=ECI gained 2.2 points in February to land at 91.2, standing on the shoulders of January's upwardly revised reading of 89.0.

The number printed 4.2 points north of analyst expectations.

Digging deeper, while survey participants' assessment of present conditions deteriorated by 1.5%, near-term expectations jumped 7.1%.

"Confidence ticked up in February after falling in January, as consumers’ pessimistic expectations for the future eased somewhat,” said Dana M. Peterson, CB's chief economist. "All three Expectations Index components advanced slightly in February: expectations for business and labor market conditions six months from now were less negative, while expectations for incomes were more positive."

A reminder for data geeks: a widening gap between the present situation and expectations - as seen in the graphic below - is often a harbinger of recession. So this month's narrowing of the gulf between the two provides some assurance that the economy has yet to reach the brink of a downturn:

The "jobs confidence" element of the report - which subtracts "jobs hard to find" from "jobs plentiful" - improved to dismal from historically dire, but still echoing the general downward trend in the new hires element of the Labor Department's JOLTS report.

Crossing to the housing market's side of the street, home prices in major U.S. cities increased by 0.5% in December, stronger than the 0.3% growth economists predicted and a repeat of November's print.

Year-over-year, the Case-Shiller 20-city composite USSHPQ=ECI posted a consensus-nailing 1.4% increase, also a repeat from the prior month.

Even so, compared with consumer prices, "real" home prices continue to soften.

"With December's results, we can now assess 2025's full-year performance in historical context,” writes Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "National home prices grew just 1.3% for the year — the weakest full-year gain since
2011."

"Over the prior decade, national home prices outpaced inflation by 3.7 percentage points annually, a dynamic that has quietly reversed, with real home price returns turning negative in June 2025," Godec adds.

Among the cities in the composite, Chicago and New York once again led the year-over-year gainers, rising 5.3% and 5.1%, respectively. Alas, poor Tampa was the biggest loser for the 14th month running, with home prices in Cigar City dipping 2.9% from a year ago.

(Stephen Culp)

EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:

WALL STREET INDEXES RISE WITH AI IN FOCUS AGAIN CLICK HERE

S&P 500 CORRALLED BY MOVING AVERAGES, TRADERS AWAIT BREAKOUT CLICK HERE

THE CASE FOR BRITAIN'S SMALL- AND MID-CAPS CLICK HERE

ITALIAN DEBT THE AI WINNER CLICK HERE

THE HALO EFFECT: INVESTORS ROTATING TOWARD PHYSICAL ASSETS CLICK HERE

TRUMP MIGHT BECOME LESS AGGRESSIVE ON TARIFFS CLICK HERE

STOXX SOFT, BANKS WEIGH CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: EDGING HIGHER CLICK HERE

TRUMP FUMES AGAINST THE WORLD AS HIS TARIFFS COME UP SHORT CLICK HERE