Wall St Week Ahead-Nvidia, software reports pose next tests for AI-sensitive stock market

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Investors turn to financial results from artificial intelligence bellwether Nvidia Corp NVDA.O in the coming week to steady a U.S. stock market that has been rocked by AI-related worries and is digesting a Supreme Court overturn of President Donald Trump's sweeping trade tariffs.

Friday's Supreme Court ruling striking down Trump's tariffs initially lifted stocks and Treasury yields but left investors grappling with the uncertainty over what other forms of trade duties Trump will resort to and how the U.S. government will deal with litigation and refunds.

Besides that overhang on markets and Nvidia's results, Wall Street will focus on other tech-sector quarterly reports. These include key software companies that are under siege from concerns that AI will upend their businesses.

Wednesday's report from semiconductor giant Nvidia, the world's largest company by market capitalization, comes as the heavyweight tech sector and other megacap stocks are off to shaky starts in 2026, weighing on major indexes they have led higher over the past few years.

AI "hyperscalers" have announced plans to ramp up capital spending to build out data centers and other infrastructure, which often utilize Nvidia's equipment, setting the stage for the company to deliver strong results, said Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at retirement and wealth services provider Empower.

"The expectation for outsized results for Nvidia has been a persistent theme over the past few years," Norton said. "And so it's hard for Nvidia to surprise when everyone expects it to surprise."

The benchmark S&P 500 .SPX was last up a modest 0.2% for the year. But there have been significant gyrations below the surface. Shares in industries such as software, wealth management and real estate services have been hammered on concerns they are vulnerable to AI disruption.

NVIDIA FOCUS ON FORECAST, CEO'S COMMENTS

Nvidia's shares soared over 1,500% from late 2022 to the end of last year. This year, its stock was up about 0.8% in 2026 as of Thursday. Others of the "Magnificent Seven" megacap stocks, which have fueled the current bull market, have fared worse this year. Microsoft MSFT.O shares are down more than 17% in 2026, while Amazon AMZN.O is off 11%.

Nvidia's stock alone can influence major indexes; for example, the stock holds a 7.8% weighting in the S&P 500.

For its fiscal fourth quarter, the company is expected to post a 71% rise in earnings per share on revenue of $65.9 billion, according to LSEG. For its coming fiscal year, analysts on average estimate it to earn $7.76 per share, a 66% jump. But the range of estimates among analysts is "significant," noted Melissa Otto, head of research at S&P Global Visible Alpha. The low end calls for fiscal year EPS of $6.28 against a high-end estimate of $9.68, according to LSEG data.

"If the bulls are right, then the stock is looking probably not too expensive," Otto said. "If the bears are right...it's not that cheap."

Comments on Nvidia's quarterly conference call by CEO Jensen Huang could have broader AI industry ramifications, including for hyperscalers whose shares have been pressured by concerns about a lack of returns on capital spending.

"Jensen has to come out and show his confidence in his own customers," said Nick Giorgi, chief equity strategist at Alpine Macro. "The fact that to this point, Nvidia has been a cheerleader for their biggest customers is actually what you should want as an investor in this whole ecosystem."

SOFTWARE REPORTS, STATE OF THE UNION ALSO ON TAP

Reports from major software players Salesforce CRM.N and Intuit INTU.O will be more significant than usual, given the AI fallout in the industry. The S&P 500 software and services index .SPLRCIS is down about 20% so far this year.

"Next week is going to be pretty important for software," said King Lip, chief strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management. While the selling in the group overall seems "overdone," Lip said, "I think there are some software names that are ... going to have to find a way to adapt and innovate."

AI infrastructure players Dell DELL.N and CoreWeave CRWV.O also will post earnings in the coming week.

Outside of tech, results are due from retailers Home Depot HD.N and Lowe's LOW.N as the fourth-quarter earnings season comes to a close. Investors will also evaluate President Donald Trump's State of the Union speech on Tuesday.

While the tech sector has struggled, indexes have been supported by a market rotation into areas such as energy, industrials and consumer staples.

"It's kind of a perplexing market," Norton said. "Everything that worked in 2025 is now having a hard 2026. And what was left behind in 2025 is working in 2026."