BREAKINGVIEWS-World Cup offers Europe’s airlines brief lift

By Oliver Taslic

LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Having a major sporting event in your backyard might sound ideal for an airline. The reality is more nuanced: Air France-KLM AIRF.PA took a 200-million-euro revenue hit as tourists avoided Paris during the 2024 Olympics. This year’s soccer World Cup in the U.S., Canada and Mexico is a chance for Europe’s carriers to cash in. But the event could prove to be the airline equivalent of a corner kick: potentially lucrative, but unlikely to be game-changing.

On the face of it, there’s much to celebrate for Air France-KLM, Deutsche Lufthansa LHAG.DE and British Airways owner IAG ICAG.L. Local teams including England, Spain, Germany and France have qualified for the tournament. Airbnb highlighted strong interest from international Gen Z travellers in particular, while organiser FIFA’s president has proclaimed “absolutely crazy” demand. Even low-cost carrier Wizz Air WIZZ.L is trying to get in on the action, though its application to operate flights to the U.S. is for charters rather than scheduled passenger service, its CEO told Reuters.

North America is a handy place for it, too. Transatlantic routes are typically more profitable for European carriers, helped by strong premium demand and limited seating capacity. RBC analysts forecast capacity on North Atlantic routes to rise 2.6% this summer, compared to a 3.9% increase in demand, implying pricing power. Any unexpected runs into the later stages of the competition by local countries could trigger a deluge of lucrative last-minute bookings.

Time, then, for airline executives to take their shirts off and twirl them over their heads, football-style? Probably not. Bank of America analysts say American travellers accounted for 60% of all transatlantic passengers between the U.S. and Europe in 2025, meaning the financial health of U.S. citizens, particularly the wealthier ones that populate European airlines’ premium seats, will still be crucial.

Moreover, the raw numbers are small. Tourism Economics projected in November that the World Cup could bring 742,000 incremental international visitors to the U.S., meaning trips that wouldn’t have happened otherwise. Raise that to, say, 900,000 to account for the fact that the U.S. is only hosting three-quarters of the matches, and the pool of extra European fliers would be in the hundreds of thousands, compared to the over 100 million passengers IAG transported in 2024.

In contrast to a single-city event like the Olympics, the vast distances between matches could benefit U.S. network carriers Delta DAL.N, United UAL.O and American Airlines AAL.O more. American said it was adding 27,000 seats to handle the demand. Still, while European airlines’ full-year results will hinge on more routine factors like non-fuel costs and broader premium demand – as well as whether a U.S. immigration crackdown knocks Europeans’ appetite for transatlantic travel – a successful World Cup could give profits a kick.

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CONTEXT NEWS

Air France-KLM will report its full-year 2025 results on February 19, followed by British Airways owner IAG in late February and Deutsche Lufthansa in early March.

The 2026 FIFA World Cup soccer tournament, which will take place in the United States, Mexico and Canada, begins on June 11.