FACTBOX-What to expect in 2026: Brokerage forecasts for S&P 500, global GDP
Feb 6 (Reuters) - Top brokerages expect the benchmark S&P 500 index .SPX to extend its rally in 2026, as investors pile into artificial intelligence plays and bet on reduced borrowing costs to sustain the momentum.
The benchmark index will rise nearly 12% to 7,490 by end-2026, marking a fourth straight year of advances if 2025 closes higher, according to a Reuters poll.
Strategists from major investment banks expect AI momentum and Federal Reserve rate cuts to keep the bull market alive, even as they warn inflation, stretched valuations and tariff tensions could trigger corrections.
They expect global economic growth to be resilient. Global GDP should rise between 2.4% and 3.3%, as per estimates.
Following are forecasts from some top brokerages on economic growth and the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026:
Forecasts for stocks:
Brokerage | 2026 S&P 500 index target |
BofA Global Research | 7,100 |
Societe Generale | 7,300 |
Barclays | 7,400 |
UBS Global Research | 7,500 |
Jefferies | 7,500 |
HSBC | 7,500 |
J.P.Morgan | 7,500 |
Canaccord Genuity | 7,500 |
BNP Paribas | 7,500 |
Goldman Sachs | 7,600 |
Citigroup | 7,700 |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 7,700 |
Evercore ISI | 7,750 |
Morgan Stanley | 7,800 |
Seaport Research Partners | 7,800 |
Deutsche Bank | 8,000 |
Oppenheimer Asset Management | 8,100 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 7,400-7,600 |
Real GDP Growth:
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | EURO AREA | UK |
Citigroup | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
Morgan Stanley | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
Barclays | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% |
Wells Fargo | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 1.2% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
HSBC | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
BofA Global Research | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
UBS Global Research | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% |
Peel Hunt | - | 2.0% | 1.3% | 1.3% |
TD Securities | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages' 2026 forecast for S&P 500 index target
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