GRAINS-Chicago soybeans set for modest weekly gain on China demand optimism

Jan 23 (Reuters) - Chicago soybean futures were steady on Friday and on track for a modest weekly gain, as talks between U.S. and Chinese officials raised hopes that Beijing will buy more U.S. beans, though the start of the harvest season in Brazil limited gains.

Wheat futures edged higher after a Russian agricultural consultancy said it could lower its estimate for 2026 Russian production if a cold snap continues, though prices were still set for a weekly decline, with plenty of grain available.

Corn edged lower and was slightly down over the week, as traders gauged prospects of abundant supply.

FUNDAMENTALS

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 was flat at $10.63-3/4 a bushel, as of 0210 GMT, but has gained 0.6% week-on-week.

CBOT wheat Wv1 edged 0.1% higher to $5.16 a bushel but was down 0.3% over the week, while corn Cv1 slipped 0.2% to $4.23-1/4 a bushel and was set for a 0.4% weekly decline.

All three contracts are far below their highs during 2021-23 following a series of strong global production years.

Traders hope China, the biggest soybean importer, will buy more from the United States after U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said he held "positive" talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week.

China had stepped up purchases from the U.S. after a trade truce was agreed in October but has now fulfilled its commitment to buy 12 million tons.

Top soybean producer Brazil is likely to ship less soy than expected during January, but the country is now ramping up its harvest and its beans are cheaper than U.S. supplies.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday confirmed private sales of 192,350 metric tons of U.S. soybeans to undisclosed destinations.

Meanwhile, soybean and corn harvesting in Argentina advanced slowly last week as rains hampered fields in northern production areas, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said.

In other crops, forecast rainfall in Brazil is expected to boost corn production, LSEG said, while raising its corn harvest outlook for Argentina.

Weather forecasters said a winter storm should bring helpful moisture to wheat across the southern U.S. Plains but the cold that follows could put winter wheat at risk in places without insulating snow cover.

MARKET NEWS

Stocks made tepid gains in early Asian trading ahead of the Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting, at which it is widely expected to keep rates on hold. MKTS/GLOB

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0700 UK Retail Sales MM, YY Dec

0700 UK Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM Dec

0745 France Business Climate Mfg, Overall January

0815 France HCOB Mfg, Svcs, Comp Flash PMIs January

0830 Germany HCOB Mfg, Svcs, Comp Flash PMIs January

0900 EU HCOB Mfg, Svcs, Comp Flash PMIs January

0930 UK HCOB Mfg, Svcs, Comp Flash PMIs January

1445 US S&P Global Mfg, Svcs, Comp PMIs Flash January

1500 US U Mich Sentiment Final January

1500 EU Consumer Confid. Flash January

1500 Japan JP BOJ Rate Decision January 23