LIVE MARKETS-DataTrek Research presents results of its 2026 Capital Markets Survey

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DATATREK RESEARCH PRESENTS RESULTS OF ITS 2026 CAPITAL MARKETS SURVEY

DataTrek Research received a total 476 completed responses to its 2026 capital markets survey. Those responses were entered between January 13 and January 19.

According to Nicolas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, survey takers were very positive on the American economy and U.S. large-cap stocks. In fact, 83% of respondents believe the domestic economy will avoid a recession in 2026, and 73% think the S&P 500 .SPX will post a total return of +5% to +15%.

On interest rates, Colas says a large majority (84%) see the Fed cutting policy rates by 25 to 75 basis points this year, or one to three 25-basis point cuts. With this, about half (49%) think that the 10-year Treasury yield US10YT=RR will end the year in the 4.00% to 4.50% zone.

Just over half of respondents (56%) expect that U.S. stocks will outperform other options like precious metals (17% of votes), emerging markets (14%), EAFE stocks (10%), 10-year Treasuries (1%), and cash (1%).

Within domestic equities, more showed a preference for large caps (39%) versus small caps (17%).

Over three quarters (77%) believe that AI will fundamentally change their professional and/or personal lives in the next five years. Given this, it's perhaps not surprising that nearly half (46%) believe U.S. large-cap Tech will be the S&P 500’s best performing sector in 2026.

Most respondents (71%) expect the Democrats to retake the House in the 2026 midterms, and as for what concerns them most, survey takers most often cited geopolitical uncertainty (28%), U.S. political uncertainty (20%), and high valuations (17%).

Among Colas' takeaways, he notes that this past weekend's news and Tuesday's U.S./global capital markets' rout underscore why measuring investor expectations is an important endeavor.

"Our survey captures the pulse of market participants just before a shock. It was resolutely bullish, and now that faith is facing an early test. There will, almost certainly, be more to come in 2026."

(Terence Gabriel)

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