EMERGING MARKETS-Rupiah flirts with record lows on fiscal concerns, trade war risks

By Nichiket Sunil

Jan 19 (Reuters) - The Indonesian rupiah slipped below the 16,900 per dollar mark for the first time in nine months on Monday, as it continued to be pressured by concerns about the country's fiscal discipline, while external tariff-related risks also weighed.

The MSCI gauge of EM Asia equities .MIMS00000PUS slipped from a record close, while a broader gauge of global EM equities .MSCIEF traded flat.

The Indonesian rupiah IDR= tumbled the most in more than two weeks to 16,927 per U.S. dollar, its weakest point since early April last year.

Maybank analysts attributed the weakness to rising domestic fiscal concerns, after the country reported a fiscal deficit of 2.92% of GDP for last year.

ANZ's head of Asia research, Khoon Goh, also pointed to pressure from President Donald Trump's threat of additional tariffs on eight European nations until the U.S. was allowed to buy Greenland.

Markets, meanwhile, largely expect the Bank Indonesia to leave its policy rate unchanged at 4.75% on Wednesday. The central bank earlier said it will keep intervening in FX markets to ensure that the currency reflects its fundamentals.

The rupiah, down about 1.5% in January so far, was among Asia's worst-performing currencies last year.

Currencies elsewhere in the region were muted: the Malaysian ringgit MYR= slipped marginally ahead of the central bank's meeting on Thursday, where markets have largely priced in a hold on robust fundamentals and economic growth.

The ringgit, slightly weaker against the dollar on the day, remains one of the most resilient emerging-market currencies. It gained about 9% in 2025 and has spent January trading near early-2021 highs around 4.05 per dollar.

Stocks in the region were mixed. While Indonesia .JKSE benchmark was at record levels, Singapore .STI, down 0.5%, was set to break a six-session winning streak.

South Korea's KOSPI index .KS11 climbed as much as 1.2% to a record high, on track for a 12th consecutive session of gains, led by a sharp 13% surge in Hyundai Motor 005380.KS on optimism around its humanoid robots. KRW/

Taiwan stocks .TWII also jumped 1.2% to an all-time high, with top contract chipmaker, TSMC 2330.TW, advancing over 2% to a record peak.

Both the East Asian benchmarks continue to benefit from AI-driven inflows, with a recent trade deal between the U.S. and Taiwan further bolstering optimism.

In China, fourth-quarter economic growth slowed to a three-year low while the full-year pace hit Beijing's target. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC was slightly higher in afternoon trade, while the onshore yuan CNY=CFXS edged higher to a new 32-month peak.

HIGHLIGHTS:
Yield on Indonesia's 10-year government bonds ID10YT=RR jumps to 6.291%
China's population drops for fourth year as fewer babies born
Bank of Singapore appoints OCBC's Collins Chin as global CFO