Street View: Analysts cautious on Exxon after co signals weaker upstream earnings, higher costs

Oil major Exxon Mobil XOM.N signals a reduction in fourth-quarter upstream earnings by about $800 million as crude prices fall

Adds that changes in gas prices could affect quarterly upstream earnings, from negative $300 million to as much as positive $100 million

In 2025, XOM rose ~12%

ANALYSTS BEARISH ON WEAKER UPSTREAM

Barclays ("overweight", PT $130) estimates Q4 company production at 4.81 MMBoed, ~1% below consensus of 4.86 MMBoed

RBC Capital Markets ("sector perform"; PT $115) anticipates costs to be "seasonally higher in 4Q"

Adds: "We see downside to consensus for most names in the sector, given weaker oil and gas pricing, as well as continued softness in chemicals"

J.P. Morgan ("overweight"): "We would peg reported EPS at $1.59, however, with history as a guide, XOM typically has come in slightly above the midpoint"

Scotiabank ("sector outperform"; PT $155) expects weaker upstream performance and other operational headwinds to pressure results; to be partly offset by stronger refining and energy products, helped by better industry margins

On average, analysts expect adjusted EPS of $1.67 per share - data compiled by LSEG