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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam assets drift lower as markets weigh geopolitical tensions, US data

ReutersJan 7, 2026 7:45 PM
  • Stocks fall 0.88%, FX ticks down 0.23%
  • Chile's December trade surplus beats estimates

By Ragini Mathur, Twesha Dikshit and Pranav Kashyap

- Latin American currencies and stocks slipped on Wednesday as President Donald Trump's plan to sell Venezuelan crude reserves lit a fresh fuse of long-term geopolitical concerns, while investors also focused on U.S. economic data.

As Latin American markets were beginning to steady themselves and move past the political shock of the U.S. capture of Venezuela's president, the risk-on rally hit a blip on Tuesday.

President Donald Trump said Venezuela would be "turning over" up to 50 million barrels of oil to be sold at market prices - a move that would boost supplies to the world's largest oil consumer - raising concerns about the long-term fallout from Washington's actions. Energy Secretary Chris Wright added that the U.S. needs to control Venezuela's oil sales and revenue indefinitely.

MSCI's Latin American equities index .MILA00000PUS fell 0.88%, while the corresponding currency gauge .MILA00000CUS ticked 0.23% lower.

"For investors with a long-term, high-risk tolerance, there may be asymmetrical optionality here; for broad Emerging Markets allocations, however, we see this as a speculative story rather than a robust investment case at this stage," said Romain Bordenave, Emerging Market Debt and FX Portfolio Manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management.

Equities in Chile .SPIPSA and Peru .MXNUAMPESCPGPE slipped from record highs hit this week, while Brazil's .BVSP and Mexico's .MXX benchmarks declined 0.89% and 0.18%, respectively. Colombia's .COLCAP share index also retreated 0.8%.

Chile posted a trade surplus of $3.594 billion in December, beating the $2.458 billion expected by economists polled by Reuters.

The U.S. dollar remained steady as markets assessed recent U.S. labor market data, which served as a prelude to this week's key employment report on Friday.

Friday's nonfarm payrolls data will offer insights on Federal Reserve monetary policy, with markets currently pricing in two more rate cuts this year.

Currencies in LatAm were mixed, with Brazil's real BRL= and the Colombian peso COP= slipping 0.3% and 0.7% respectively against the U.S. dollar.

The Peruvian sol PEN= and the Mexican peso MXN= were little changed.

Mexican headline inflation likely held steady in December, while core inflation likely fell but remained above the official target, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. The country will release inflation figures on Thursday.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1462.89

-0.29

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2778.41

-0.88

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

162202.41

-0.89

Mexico IPC .MXX

64908.4

-0.18

Argentina Merval .MERV

3024055.26

-2.838

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

10876.82

-0.47

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

2167.6

-0.38

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.3901

-0.34

Mexico peso MXN=

17.9636

0.13

Chile peso CLP=

895.41

-0.26

Colombia peso COP=

3747

-0.66

Peru sol PEN=

3.3622

-0.02

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1460

0.51

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1495

1.67

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