AI benefits, commercial loan growth in focus for US big banks in 2026 - J.P. Morgan

ReutersJan 6, 2026 2:22 PM

Going into 2026 - J.P. Morgan expects focus to be on commercial and industrial (C&I) loan growth, benefits from AI and potential regulatory changes for large cap bank stocks

J.P. Morgan expects Q4 earnings of large cap banks to be marked by 'moderate' net interest income and loan growth along with mixed y-o-y investment banking and trading revenues

U.S. big banks, including Citigroup C.N, Wells Fargo WFC.N and Bank of America BAC.N, are set to report Q4 earnings next week

"With strong stock performance in 2025, bank stocks could be choppy into 4Q earnings if outlooks are moderate, even if these are out of caution given high expectations" - JPM

In 2026, markets-related revenues are expected to stay strong near term, with credit quality holding up despite inflation pressures and some private credit softness, says JPM

Citi's Q4 earnings are likely to be 'very messy', while Wells Fargo continues to expand investment banking and trading - both being key revenue drivers, adds JPM

Following are JPM's PT revisions on large cap bank stocks:

Company	Previous PT	Current PT
Bank of America	$58	$61
Citigroup	$124	$130
Citizens Financial	$58.50	$62.50
PNC Financial	$213.50	$228.50
Regions Financial	$27.50	$29
Truist Financial	$47.50	$51.50
U.S. Bancorp	$50	$55.50
Wells Fargo	$92	$99
Huntington Bancshares	$18.50	$20
M&T Bank	$207.50	$217
KeyCorp	$19.50	$22

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