GLOBAL MARKETS-European stocks fly again; precious metals extend sparkling rally

By Rae Wee and Vidya Ranganathan

SINGAPORE/LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - European stocks began 2026 at fresh record highs as investors braced for a year set to test the AI-led rally, usher in a change of guard at the U.S. Federal Reserve, more government spending and potentially more turbulence under Donald Trump's presidency.

London's blue-chip FTSE 100 .FTSE index hit the symbolic 10,000 points mark for the first time on Friday, while the pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX index hit another peak while on course for its third consecutive weekly advance.

The STOXX index finished 2025 with its best showing since 2021 on the back of falling interest rates, Germany's fiscal boost, and a rotation out of lofty U.S. tech names.

Asia, meanwhile, saw Hong Kong stocks kick off 2026 by climbing to a 1 1/2-month high, and markets in Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore hit record highs. Markets in Japan and China were closed.

Precious metals extended their runaway rally from last year, with spot gold XAU= up 1.6% to $4,384 an ounce, while spot silver XAG= jumped 4.3% to $74.37 per ounce. GOL/

Gold's 2025 rise was its biggest in 46 years, while silver and platinum made their largest gains on record, driven by a cocktail of factors including the Fed's rate cuts, geopolitical flashpoints, robust central bank buying, and ETF inflows.

Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho's head of macro research for Asia ex-Japan, said the rally also underscored "hedges against entrenching USD debasement risks."

S&P 500 futures ESc1 rose 0.6%, while Nasdaq futures NQc1 added 1%.

Stocks made strong gains in 2025 as markets weathered a year of tariff wars, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, geopolitical strife as well as threats to central bank independence.

"The 2025 U.S. equity market rally has been fuelled by AI euphoria, robust corporate earnings, share buybacks and strong retail flows," said Saira Malik, chief investment officer at Nuveen.

"Bouts of volatility, such as those sparked by macro, geopolitical and policy uncertainty, as well as periodic shifts in sentiment around AI, are likely to remain a feature of equity markets, meaning investors should expect more hiccups in the coming year."

EYES ON THE FED

Much of investors' attention this year will also be on the strength of the U.S. economy and the Fed's policy path.

A slew of economic data delayed by the U.S. government shutdown is due in the coming days and could be key in determining how far rate cuts can go.

Traders have priced in a 15% chance that the U.S. central bank will ease rates this month, though they expect two more cuts this year. 0#USDIRPR

The dollar was flat, with the euro EUR= down very slightly at $1.1735, while sterling GBP= gave up early gains to steady at $1.3456. FRX/

The yen JPY= was steady too at 156.79 per dollar, not far from levels that kept investors skittish about possible intervention from Japanese authorities to shore up the ailing currency.

With further easing expected by the Fed this year even as some of its peers look set to hike, that has in turn dragged on the dollar, which in 2025 clocked its biggest annual drop in eight years.

The greenback has also been roiled by Trump's chaotic trade policies and worries about Fed independence - an issue set to come to the fore this year as the U.S. president prepares to announce Chair Jerome Powell's replacement later this month.

In commodities, oil prices were a tad lower on Friday after posting their biggest annual loss since 2020.