FACTBOX-What to expect in 2026: Brokerage forecasts for S&P 500, global GDP
Dec 24 (Reuters) - Top brokerages expect the benchmark S&P 500 index .SPX to extend its rally in 2026, as investors pile into artificial intelligence plays and bet on reduced borrowing costs to sustain the momentum.
The benchmark index will rise nearly 12% to 7,490 by end-2026, marking a fourth straight year of advances if 2025 closes higher, according to a Reuters poll.
Strategists from major investment banks expect AI momentum and Federal Reserve rate cuts to keep the bull market alive, even as they warn inflation, stretched valuations and tariff tensions could trigger corrections.
They expect global economic growth to be resilient. Global GDP should rise between 2.4% and 3.3%, as per estimates.
Following are forecasts from some top brokerages on economic growth and the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026:
Forecasts for stocks:
Brokerage | 2026 S&P 500 index target |
BofA Global Research | 7,100 |
Societe Generale | 7,300 |
Barclays | 7,400 |
UBS Global Research | 7,500 |
Jefferies | 7,500 |
HSBC | 7,500 |
J.P.Morgan | 7,500 |
Canaccord Genuity | 7,500 |
BNP Paribas | 7,500 |
Goldman Sachs | 7,600 |
Citigroup | 7,700 |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 7,700 |
Evercore ISI | 7,750 |
Morgan Stanley | 7,800 |
Seaport Research Partners | 7,800 |
Deutsche Bank | 8,000 |
Oppenheimer Asset Management | 8,100 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 7,400-7,600 |
Real GDP Growth:
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | EURO AREA | UK |
Citigroup | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
Morgan Stanley | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
TD Securities | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 1.0% |
Wells Fargo | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% |
HSBC | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
BofA Global Research | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 1.1% |
UBS Global Research | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages' 2026 forecast for S&P 500 index target
Related Articles
Tesla Stock Outlook: Competing With Rivian, Robotaxi Potential, and 2026 Prospects
There is much conversation about the prospect of investing in Tesla (TSLA) as we move closer to 2026. The volatility of its share price in 2025 is leading many investors to consider if they should purchase shares of Tesla given the alternatives available in terms of electric vehicles (Rivian, etc.).
Why Sanae Takaichi Winning Japan’s Diet Election Led to a Surge in Japanese Stock Indices？
TradingKey - Reports indicate that the ruling coalition led by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has secured a single-party majority in the parliamentary elections held on Sunday (February 8). Following the news, the yen weakened slightly, while the Nikkei Index surpassed 57,000 for the first t
A Crash After a Surge: Why Silver Lost 40% in a Week?
TradingKey - Spot silver (XAGUSD) prices continue to decline. Silver plunged 20% on Thursday, breaking below $71 per ounce, with the sell-off intensifying on Friday as prices fell further below $64. Compared to the all-time high set on January 29, silver prices have retraced more than 40%, wiping out nearly all gains accumulated over the previous month.
Is Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Dead in 2026?
Is the Bitcoin 4-year cycle dead? After 2025 broke historical records with a red post-halving year, institutional analysts explore if the Bitcoin price has decoupled from the halving countdown. Analyze the impact of spot ETFs, global liquidity, and the roadmap to the 2028 halving in this 2026 market
