Exane expects 2026 earnings growth for European OEMs, flags Chinese imports
Exane BNP Paribas says European carmakers have held market share well against Chinese imports, but warns that continued resilience needs stronger tech and more government support
It expects 2026 as a year of earnings growth, coming from improved EU demand from subsidies, cost savings and new product offerings after years of investments
The broker sees upcoming "automotive package" from EU as a possible positive catalyst, potentially relaxing emission rules for 2030, 2035 and requiring more EU-made content
However, it estimates imports from China in the sector to rise around 25% in 2026
It raises Ferrari RACE.MI to "outperform" from "neutral" expecting Ferrari to boost earnings in 2026 mainly through higher prices and a favourable product mix, as resale prices have stabilised
It cuts Stellantis STLAM.MI to "underperform" from "neutral", expecting recovery to come slower than consensus forecasts
Company | PT | % Change | Old Rating | New Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Ferrari NV RACE.MI | 399.0 | -4% | Neutral | Outperform |
Porsche AG P911_p.DE | 47.0 | +9% | Neutral | Neutral |
Renault RENA.PA | 46.0 | +2% | Outperform | Outperform |
Stellantis STLAM.MI | 7.8 | -11% | Neutral | Underperform |
Volkswagen VOWG.DE | 153.0 | +13% | Outperform | Outperform |
Volkswagen VOWG_p.DE | 143.0 | +14% | Outperform | Outperform |
Volvo Car AB VOLCARb.ST | 24.0 | +50% | Underperform | Underperform |
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