LIVE MARKETS-Decennial pattern shows less bullish 2026
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com.
DECENNIAL PATTERN SHOWS LESS BULLISH 2026
A study of the decennial pattern for stocks shows that years ending in 6 are typically less bullish than those ending in 5, indicating that this year’s strong stock gains may not be replicated next year, according to Tom McClellan editor of The McClellan Market Report.
“Years ending in 5 are up years almost without exception through the entire history of the DJIA,” McClellan said in a blog post, noting the two exceptions were 2005, when the DJIA fell 0.6%, and in 2015 when it dropped 2.2%. The index is up 12.3% year-to-date. .DJI
“Coming up is the more problematic year 6 of the decade, which is more flat on average,” McClellan said. The upside, however, is that the “flat part does not start for a while, and we still have more of the uptrend seen in year 5s that continues into year 6.”
McClellan notes that this year’s bull market was interrupted by reaction to U.S. President Donald’ Trump’s tariff policies in April.
However, “investors eventually got over that, and the patterns have matched up nicely since about May 2025. The Decennial Pattern shows that this uptrend should continue all the way to a top due ideally April 6, 2026. That is when the sideways period of the year 6 is supposed to start.”
(Karen Brettell)
EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
CHARGING INTO THE HOLIDAYS: CONSUMER CREDIT OUTSTANDING CLICK HERE
FED HEAD: STOCKS MIXED IN EARLY GOING, TECH OUT FRONT CLICK HERE
INFLATION CRUCIAL FOR MARKETS NEXT YEAR – BOFA CLICK HERE
US INVESTORS GET MOST BANG FOR BUCK BEYOND WALL ST CLICK HERE
EVERYTHING IS POINTING HIGHER, FOR NOW CLICK HERE
SWISS FRANC COULD GET A REALITY CHECK CLICK HERE
WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR FROM THE 'AI ORACLE' THIS WEEK CLICK HERE
NUDGING DOWN CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: WATCH RATE SENSITIVE SECTORS CLICK HERE
FUTURES TRY FOR A FED FAIT ACCOMPLI CLICK HERE
Related Articles
TradingKey 2025 Markets Recap & Outlook | Bitcoin Price Repeatedly Hits New Highs, 2026 Can BTC Write Another Legend?
Multiple tailwinds in 2025 propelled Bitcoin to new highs, but many of these positives have already been priced in. In 2026, Bitcoin faces challenges such as liquidity tightening, as well as regulatory and monetary policy uncertainties. Wall Street is divided on Bitcoin's future outlook, with target
TradingKey 2025 Markets Recap & Outlook | Global Central Banks 2026 amid Post‑Easing Recovery and Diverging Paths
TradingKey - In 2025, major global central banks will largely maintain an accommodative stance, but the policy pace will decelerate notably. As the easing cycle draws to a close, how will global monetary policy evolve?
Ripple Price Prediction: Why Is XRP Price Falling? Can It Rise to $10 in the Future?
XRP has weakened this year due to profit-taking, capital outflows, and its correlation with Bitcoin. Despite support from potential spot ETFs and positive regulatory developments, significant market divergence, liquidity uncertainty, and macroeconomic uncertainty remain high. XRP's price is likely t
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Poised for Record-Breaking IPO: How Can Retail Investors Get In on the Action of Starlink Stock?
TradingKey - Elon Musk's rocket manufacturer SpaceX is expected to launch an IPO in 2026, with a target IPO valuation projected to reach $1.5 trillion. However, prior to its listing, the stock can only be traded in the private market, characterized by low information transparency and high capital ba
