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EVERYTHING IS POINTING HIGHER, FOR NOW
It feels like no one knows quite what to think about markets at the moment, but Societe Generale's cross asset sentiment indicator is seeing all its lights flashing green.
They look at 11 key cross-asset signals from whether cyclical stocks are outperforming defensives, to what's happening with high yield credit, via copper vs gold, the Aussie dollar and a few others.
And remarkably, all 11 have seen a positive change in the last four weeks for the first time since July 2023, an outcome that occurs less than 4% of the time.
They say it normally occurs when sentiment around the Fed is shifting, and obviously we've seen that in the last few weeks where a December cut went from being up in the air, to all-but priced in.
This outcome is normally a good sign for the S&P 500, though of course we've got a Fed meeting coming up this week, so there's a risk sentiment could shift again.
(Alun John)
EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
SWISS FRANC COULD GET A REALITY CHECK CLICK HERE
WHAT TO WATCH OUT FOR FROM THE 'AI ORACLE' THIS WEEK CLICK HERE
NUDGING DOWN CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: WATCH RATE SENSITIVE SECTORS CLICK HERE
FUTURES TRY FOR A FED FAIT ACCOMPLI CLICK HERE