JPM sees tough 2026 for paper firms

J.P. Morgan forecasts a tough 2026 for the EMEA paper and packaging sector, citing looming excess supply that prompts a highly selective stock-picking approach

The brokerage expects global oversupply to pressure cartonboard prices, while EU containerboard and global pulp prices will likely hover around cost support levels for 2026

Reflecting this cautious view, JPM downgrades Swedish forest products firm SCA SCAa.ST to "neutral" from "overweight" due to declining wood fibre prices

The broker also keeps "underweight" ratings on Holmen HOLMb.ST and UPM UPM.HE, citing Holmen's unfavourable product mix and a deteriorating post-2027 pulp outlook for UPM

However, the broker highlights the U.S. corrugated market as "a place to hide, and eventually thrive" thanks to disciplined supply and stable pricing prospects

Consequently, JPM reiterates its "overweight" ratings on US-exposed firms Smurfit WestRock SWR.L and Packaging Corp of America PKG.N as its top ideas for 2026