LIVE MARKETS-Waiting for German recovery
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WAITING FOR GERMAN RECOVERY
Recent weak data hasn’t shaken confidence that big government spending will give Germany’s economy a lift soon.
However, signs of this trend are still hard to discern.
Commerzbank’s 'German Recovery Monitor' shows little evidence of a rebound in economic activity, with even the upswing in the construction sector stalling.
Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, commenting on recent data, notes that Germany is facing a “triple China shock,” while U.S. tariffs are expected to show their full impact in the coming months.
He points to weaker demand for German products in China, rising competition from Chinese producers in third markets and within the EU, and Germany’s dependence on Chinese rare earths.
UBS expects Germany to broadly stagnate this year, lagging its peers, but then accelerate over the next two years, driven by fiscal stimulus.
It keeps its GDP growth forecast of 0.2% for this year as the tariff shock hits, followed by 1.1% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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