Tesla Stock Jumps as China Registrations Ramp and Expectations Rise for EV Giant's Q3 Global Deliveries

Tesla announces global third-quarter deliveries next week and the EV giant just posted its strongest weekly China vehicle registrations of the quarter, signaling a big improvement compared to Q2 but still lagging behind last year.

Tesla shares jumped about 4% on Wednesday.

Tesla insurance registrations in China totaled 17,300 for the week of Sept. 15 to 21, up nearly 13% from 15,350 the previous week, marking its highest weekly total so far in Q3, according to data compiled Tuesday by independent China auto industry trackers.

Along with Tesla's China insurance registrations jump last week, other major Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers also broadly saw increases. Registrations tend to ramp up at the end of the quarter.

Of Tesla's total vehicle registrations, there were 10,340 Model Ys, 850 of the newly released six-seat Model Y L and 6,060 Model 3 vehicle registrations, according to CnEVPost.

During the prior week, 1,030 new Model Y L vehicles were registered while 894 were registered three weeks ago. The new, slightly longer wheelbase Model Y variation appears to be having an incremental boost to sales since deliveries Sept. 2.

Twelve weeks into Q3, Tesla registrations in China, a rough gauge for deliveries, are now up 33% compared to Q2 but down around 8% to Q3 2024. So far this year, Tesla vehicle registrations in China have declined 6%.

Tesla Q3 Deliveries Upcoming

Officially, analyst consensus has global Tesla Q3 vehicle deliveries coming in around 446,000, according to FactSet. That would be about 16% above the second-quarter total but still down 4% vs. Q3 2024. Few analysts have updated Q3 delivery targets since late July, however.

Piper Sandler on Sunday projected 495,000 Q3 deliveries while GLJ Research forecasts 467,000. Meanwhile, Kalshi prediction market has been pegging deliveries at 510,000 units.

UBS analysts on Tuesday predicted that Tesla Q3 deliveries will come in at 475,000, up from its prior view of 431,000. For Q4, UBS forecasts 428,000 deliveries, down 14% vs. a year ago and down 10% quarter over quarter. UBS has a sell rating and a 215 price target on TSLA shares.

Mizuho also on Tuesday raised its Tesla stock price target to 450 from 375, noting that U.S. tariffs should have a minimal impact on new vehicle prices and that consumers appear to be buying EVs before the tax credit ends.

After the U.S. tax credit expires on Sept. 30, deliveries are likely to fall significantly in the U.S.

The EV giant updated its website over the weekend showing that customers can still take advantage of the tax credit if they order a vehicle by Sept. 30, not if it is delivered by that date. The IRS revised guidance about expiring EV tax credits in late August.