India File: Techs in trade crossfire with $100,000 H-1B visa fee

Sept 23 - By Ira Dugal, Editor Financial News, with global Reuters staff

U.S. President Donald Trump's move to drastically hike H-1B visa fees will raise Indian technology firms' costs of hiring workers and providing services in the U.S., forcing them to rethink their operating models. It already set them back by nearly $10 billion in lost market value of their shares on Monday, the first day of trading, after the news, but the impact of the decision could go much beyond that. That's our focus this week.

And the Indian central bank is likely to opt for continuity in its inflation targeting framework. Scroll down for more on that.

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A NEW 'MAGA' FRONT

Donald Trump has opened a new front in his fight for MAGA, or 'Make America Great Again', by driving up the fees on H-1B visas, used by foreign tech workers, most notably Indians. Train American workers instead, Trump said, making the announcement.

The decision put the tech industry squarely in the middle of the global trade and immigration tensions, leaving Indian firms rethinking their plans and policymakers calculating the wider hit from Trump's latest salvo.

The initial announcement - which suggested an annual fee of $100,000 on anyone with an H-1B visa entering the U.S. from September 21 compared with just a few thousand dollars previously - sparked panic, with companies asking workers who hold such visas and are overseas to rush back. Travellers cancelled plans and scrambled to find flights to the U.S.

India's foreign ministry said the move could disrupt families, adding that the U.S. and India have both benefited from mobility of skilled workers.

The final version, however, was watered down, imposing a one-time fee on new visas only. Nevertheless, global tech executives have pushed back, warning of rising costs for large companies and startups.

While Amazon AMZN.O uses the largest number of H-1B visas, leading Indian IT services firms are all among the top-10 sponsors of the visas. And Indians are the biggest beneficiaries of these temporary work permits.

Analysts expect the immediate financial impact on margins and profitability to be manageable but warn of rising uncertainties for the sector. Brokerage ICICI Securities pegged the average hit on earnings per share at about 6% while Jefferies estimated it at 4%-13% for different firms based on the nature of business and use of these visas. They did not specify the time period for the profit hit.

Read here to understand the impact on India's IT services model.

In response, the Nifty IT index .NIFTYIT fell 3% on Monday, wiping out nearly $10 billion in market value. The index of IT stocks has been the worst performer among sectoral indices in the Indian market so far this year, down 18% compared to a 6% gain for the benchmark Nifty 50 .NSEI.

RIPPLE EFFECTS WILL BECOME EVIDENT LATER

The wider implications of a clampdown on Indian tech workers in the U.S. will only play out over time.

With fewer such professionals welcome in the U.S., wage growth in the domestic industry could be hurt at a time when a squeeze on profitability and increased use of AI have already brought on job cuts.

The sector, which employs 5.67 million people, is a significant driver of demand in the Indian economy.

Citi analysts believe remittance flows from the U.S. could also be impacted over time but added that quantifying the impact is difficult.

Displaced workers could find a home in other countries such as Britain and South Korea, which are looking at easier visa policies to attract talent.

Some analysts believe the visa fee hike may eventually benefit India by increasing offshoring via global capability centres (GCC), used by foreign firms for a range of services from accounting to research, which have powered up the country's services exports in recent years.

The H-1B shock and increasing uncertainty "could accelerate GCC trajectory and lift GCC exports as a share of India’s total services exports over time," said Madhavi Arora, chief economist at Mumbai-headquartered Emkay Global Financial Services.

But this growth also could be short-circuited.

A bill known as the HIRE Act and introduced by U.S. Republican Senator Bernie Moreno has made the industry nervous. Any version of the bill, which proposes taxing companies that hire foreign workers over Americans, could limit the offshoring opportunity.

"If the repercussion of this (H-1B fee increase) is substantial offshoring, it might invite a reaction in terms of service tariffs or offshoring taxes," brokerage house Ambit Capital said in a note.

How will Trump's latest move impact India's tech sector and the broader economy? Write to me at ira.dugal@thomsonreuters.com.

MARKET MATTERS

India's central bank is likely to recommend maintaining the inflation target of 4% for another five years, Reuters reported.

The inflation targeting framework is up for review by March 2026.

The continuation of the target means predictability in the trajectory of interest rates but also leaves room for at least one more cut this year as headline inflation remains within the central bank's target while core inflation has been stickier.

The Reserve Bank of India had sought views on whether the target should be changed from headline inflation to core inflation and if the target band should be different from the current 2%-6%.

With most stakeholders backing the current framework, the central bank is likely to suggest its continuation to the government.

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