U.S. August PCE Inflation Data Released.What Signals Will Powell and Top Fed Officials Deliver?【The week ahead】

TradingKey - U.S. stocks extended gains last week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.05%, the Nasdaq Composite advancing 2.21%, and the S&P 500 climbing 1.22%.

This week, markets will focus on the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—the PCE price index—as investors continue to assess whether tariffs have fueled price pressures. Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver his first public remarks since the September policy meeting. Additional insights will come from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams, a key FOMC voting member, and newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran, who are both scheduled to speak.

The Q2 earnings season enters its final stretch, with reports due from Micron Technology (MU.US), Costco (COST.US), BlackBerry (BB.US), and Accenture (ACN.US).

 Preview of major events

The Fed’s Preferred Inflation Gauge: August PCE Price Index

Following the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of 25 basis points this year on September 17, market focus has quickly shifted to the upcoming release of the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge—the August PCE price index—for fresh clues on the path of future monetary policy.

The actual print, particularly whether core PCE and services inflation remain as subdued as the Fed expects, along with signs of any further pass-through from tariffs, will be critical in shaping market expectations for the pace of additional rate cuts. Any hotter-than-expected inflation reading could heighten the Fed’s challenge in balancing its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.

Fed Chair Powell to Deliver Public Remarks as Governors Miran, Bowman Among Officials Set for Busy Speaking Week

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Tuesday, September 23, at an economic outlook luncheon in Rhode Island. He will engage in a moderated discussion with over 500 business and community leaders on the economic outlook—an event expected to offer valuable insights into policymakers’ thinking on current economic conditions.

In addition to Powell, several other Fed officials are scheduled to deliver public remarks this week. Newly appointed Governor Stephen Miran will speak at The Economic Club of New York, where he is expected to elaborate on the rationale behind his dissenting vote. Other scheduled speakers include Governor Michelle Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and New York Fed President John Williams, all of whom are poised to share their views on the economy.

Can Micron's Earnings Continue to Fuel Its Stock Rally?

Micron (MU-US) is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the close on Wednesday. The stock has been on a remarkable run, rising for 12 consecutive sessions through last Thursday—its longest winning streak in over 16 years—and surging more than 40% during that period. That rally paused on Friday, putting even greater focus on the upcoming results.

Analysts note that Wall Street already expects Micron to deliver a beat-and-raise quarter, with results above forecasts and an upward revision to guidance. But the critical questions now are: by how much will the company exceed expectations, and will its forward-looking outlook be strong enough to convince investors that its near-doubling gain this year remains sustainable?

Selected Economic Data

Tuesday: U.S. September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash Estimate

Thursday: U.S. Q2 Real GDP Annualized Quarter-on-Quarter Growth Rate (Final)

Friday: U.S. August Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year

This week's featured events

Monday: John Williams, FOMC Permanent Voter and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, delivers a speech

Tuesday: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks

Thursday: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers a speech

Company Financial Report

Tuesday: Micron Technology (MU.O)

Saturday: Costco (COST.US)