Battle of Top Dividend Stocks: Waste Management vs. McDonald's

Key Points

• Waste Management's dividend is smaller, but powered by rising free cash flow and a multiyear investment cycle that should support steady raises.

• McDonald's offers a higher dividend yield, but may see slower dividend growth.

• One of the two dividend stocks looks slightly more compelling.

• 10 stocks we like better than Waste Management ›

Shares of WM (NYSE: WM) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) have both held investor interest in 2025 for their dependable cash returns.

WM, formerly known as Waste Management, is the largest North American waste services provider. The waste company is tying dividend growth to a rising free cash flow outlook and a slate of high-return projects in recycling, renewable natural gas, and newly integrated medical-waste operations. McDonald's, the global burger chain with a heavily franchised model, is leaning on value promotions, loyalty, and digital to keep comparable sales and earnings moving in a choppy consumer environment.

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The question for income investors is which dividend looks better today. Looking at the fundamentals, one comes out ahead as the better long-term bet.

Image source: Getty Images.

Waste Management: Strong growth prospects

WM's latest quarter underscored a cash-generation story that increasingly supports the dividend. In the second quarter of 2025, management affirmed an adjusted operating earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) outlook with a midpoint of about $7.55 billion and raised full-year free cash flow guidance to between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion, up $125 million from initial guidance. Management attributed part of the lift to tax policy restoring 100% bonus depreciation, while highlighting continued margin strength in the core collection and disposal business and contributions from sustainability investments (recycling and renewable energy).

Operationally, the quarter was solid: WM reported 12.1% year-over-year growth in adjusted operating EBITDA for its legacy waste business, with this portion of its business's EBITDA margin coming in higher than 31%. Net income also improved year over year.

Notably, CEO Jim Fish emphasized the company's progress "on all fronts" in the company's second-quarter earnings release, calling out core collection and disposal strength and the ongoing integration of WM Healthcare Solutions -- an added growth vector alongside recycling and renewable energy.

On the dividend itself, in December of last year, WM increased its payout rate by 10% for 2025 to $3.30 annually ($0.825 quarterly). This gives WM a dividend yield of 1.5%, based on the stock price, at the time of this writing. Importantly, the company's payout ratio is about 47%, a conservative level that leaves ample room for future dividend raises while still funding growth projects. Against the updated free cash flow outlook, the dividend appears well covered, leaving room for reinvestment and buybacks over time.

Some risks include the volatility of recycling commodity prices from quarter to quarter and the added complexity of integration work in healthcare services. Still, with free cash flow projected to comfortably exceed dividend outlays this year, WM's return profile looks anchored by cash -- and positioned for steady dividend growth through the cycle.

McDonald's: The bigger yield

McDonald's dividend is larger in absolute dollars and supported by one of the most profitable models in global restaurants. In the second quarter of 2025, global comparable sales rose 3.8% (U.S. up 2.5%), consolidated revenue grew 5%, and earnings per share increased 12% (7% when adjusting for one-time items).

In McDonald's second-quarter earnings release, chairman and CEO Chris Kempczinski credited value, marketing, and menu innovation for the performance, noting the company's ability to scale digital investments "at speed."

The fast-food giant raised its quarterly dividend 6% to $1.77 in September of last year, reflecting confidence in its strategy and steady cash flow generation. This puts McDonald's dividend yield at 2.3% -- meaningfully ahead of WM's. But McDonald's payout ratio stands at about 60%, a level that provides less flexibility than WM's and signals the dividend already consumes a larger share of earnings.

With a heavily franchised base and robust operating margins, McDonald's typically converts a meaningful share of revenue into earnings and cash, which supports both the dividend and ongoing repurchases. Recent updates also highlighted loyalty momentum, with systemwide sales to loyalty members at roughly $33 billion over the trailing 12 months, reinforcing the durability of demand drivers.

That said, investors should watch value perceptions and traffic among lower-income consumers. Management has leaned into value offerings to protect traffic, and while this has helped comps recently, pressure on price-sensitive guests remains a variable to monitor. Even so, the blend of brand strength, marketing scale, and digital reach gives McDonald's levers to support steady earnings and cash returns.

McDonald's tends to trade at a premium price-to-earnings multiple compared to some fast-food peers, reflecting the resilience of its franchised model and margin profile. WM also often commands a premium, given its essential services and cash visibility. For investors weighing the two, both stocks trade at premium valuations, which makes the growth path behind each payout especially important.

Ultimately, Waste Management wins this battle. Its dividend yield is lower today, but the combination of rising free cash flow, conservative payout coverage, and multiyear investments in recycling, renewable energy, and healthcare services give it stronger capacity for dividend growth. McDonald's offers scale and immediate income, but WM's trajectory points to more robust raises over time and clearer long-term cash flow visibility, making it the better dividend stock for investors with a long-term horizon.

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Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Waste Management. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.