Political turmoil comes thick and fast

POLITICAL TURMOIL COMES THICK AND FAST

The political noise just keeps coming.

Over the span of a few days, British Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba have resigned, French lawmakers voted to oust Prime Minister Francois Bayrou, Argentine President Javier Milei's party suffered a heavy defeat and Indonesia abruptly replaced its long-standing finance minister.

Investors in Europe will now look out for whom President Emmanuel Macron appoints as France's fifth prime minister in less than two years.

Macron has so far resisted the idea of calling a snap election and appears set on proposing a new prime minister, possibly turning to the centre-left.

There are no rules governing whom Macron must choose, or how quickly, but his office said he would appoint one in the next few days.

The euro EUR=EBS has thus far held steady, while French bond futures FOATc1 barely budged in Asia.

Clearly, political volatility sometimes has next to no impact on markets. Sometimes, though, it's huge.

Over in Indonesia, the rupiah slid more than 1% and the yield on the 10-year government bond ID10YT=RR jumped on Tuesday after the shock removal of influential finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, as investors fear hard-fought fiscal credibility could be eroded by populist spending plans under President Prabowo Subianto.

The Argentine peso ARS=RASL lost as much as 5.6% to the dollar on Monday following Milei's election drubbing.

But in the broader market, investor sentiment remained buoyant on the prospect of an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next week.

With markets already pricing in a 25 basis-point cut, the question now is whether the Fed could deliver an outsized 50 bp move.

Clues may lie in the U.S. Labor Department's preliminary revision estimate to employment for the year through March later on Tuesday, ahead of readings on consumer and producer price inflation later this week.

A downside surprise in any of those figures could see traders price in a greater chance of a 50 bp cut, which currently stands at just above 11%, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:

• U.S. Labor Department's preliminary revision estimate to the employment level for the 12 months through March

France's political turmoil resurfaces, pressuring its bond market again

What will the Federal Reserve do with interest rates?