U.S. August CPI Data Will Determine the Fed's Rate Cut Size，Apple’s Fall Launch Event Draws Investor Attention【The week ahead】

TradingKey - Last week, weaker-than-expected U.S. August nonfarm payrolls fueled concerns over labor market softness and boosted investor expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. U.S. major indexes opened higher and dipped lower, briefly hitting record highs during the session. This week, markets will focus on the August CPI and PPI data—should inflation readings show further cooling, it could strengthen the case for a Fed rate cut. The European Central Bank is set to announce its rate decision on September 11, with markets widely expecting a hold on deposit rates at 2%, marking the second consecutive meeting without a change. Apple has announced a special event themed “It’s Glowtime” at 1 a.m. Beijing time on September 10, where the iPhone 17 lineup is widely expected to be unveiled. On the earnings front, Oracle will report its latest results on Wednesday, September 10. The company’s prior earnings beat and optimistic guidance continue to draw investor attention.

Preview of major events

Markets Focus on U.S. August CPI and PPI Data

On September 11, the U.S. will release the August CPI report—the most critical inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Although core CPI rebounded in July, markets widely believe that with the labor market cooling, rising price pressures will not be sufficient to deter the Fed from cutting rates.

Banque Barclays expects headline CPI to rise 0.4% month-over-month in August (up from 0.2% in July), with the annual rate climbing to 2.9% from 2.7%; core CPI is projected to hold steady at 3.1% year-over-year. 

ECB to Announce Deposit Facility Rate, Expected to Hold Steady

The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision on September 11, with markets widely expecting it to hold the deposit rate steady at 2% for the second consecutive meeting.

Earlier, the ECB paused its streak of eight consecutive rate cuts in July. President Christine Lagarde recently stated that the 2% inflation target has been achieved and that the central bank will take measures to ensure price stability. Slovenia’s acting central bank governor went further, saying outright that the ECB’s “easing cycle has come to an end.”

Apple Unveils iPhone 17 at Launch Event

Apple has announced a special event titled “It’s Glowtime” set for early morning on September 10 in Beijing time, where the iPhone 17 lineup is widely expected to be unveiled. Wall Street analysts say the key focus will be on the company’s new product lineup adjustments and pricing strategy.

According to reports from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, the iPhone 17 series will include four models, with the most significant change being the introduction of a new ultra-thin “iPhone 17 Air” that is expected to replace the underperforming “Plus” variant. The device is rumored to have a thickness of just 5.5 millimeters, making it the thinnest iPhone ever released.

Selected Economic Data

Wednesday: U.S. August PPI YoY

Thursday: U.S. August Unadjusted CPI YoY

Friday: U.S. September 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Preliminary)

This week's featured events

Monday: Former U.S. President Trump to Speak

Wednesday: Apple’s Fall Product Launch Event

Thursday: ECB President Lagarde to Hold Monetary Policy Press Conference

Corporate Earnings

Tuesday: Oracle (ORCL.N)