US STOCKS-Nasdaq futures flat as Nvidia slips on China market uncertainty

By Johann M Cherian and Sanchayaita Roy

Aug 28 (Reuters) - Futures tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq were flat on Thursday, constrained by a drop in Nvidia shares, as uncertainty around the Sino-U.S. trade war forced the AI chip giant to leave out potential China sales from its quarterly forecast.

The exclusion came despite the company having secured certain licenses earlier this month to sell its H20 chips to major market China, after reaching a revenue-sharing deal with the U.S. government.

Nvidia's NVDA.O shares slipped 1.8% in premarket trading, as some analysts also raised concerns about whether the company's data center results hinted at tighter spending by cloud providers.

Still, its strong quarterly revenue forecasts, $60 billion share buyback plan and CEO Jensen Huang's upbeat comments placated investors who were worried that the demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure might be slowing down at a time when valuations on the S&P 500 have also leaped ahead of long-term averages and developed market peers.

"AI demand is not the problem for Nvidia, it's more how politics has got in the way of its grand ambitions for global domination," said Dan Coatsworth, an investment analyst at AJ Bell.

"The company is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Nvidia has technology that countless companies are queuing up to buy, yet the U.S. trade war has made it difficult to sell whatever it wants into China."

The enthusiasm around the earnings prospects from AI was the driving force behind the bull-market rally that started nearly three years ago on Wall Street. It has survived multiple hiccups this year, including the unveiling of cheaper Chinese AI models and the U.S. tariff-induced selloff in April.

Among semiconductor peers, Super Micro Computer SMCI.O lost more than 1% and Advanced Micro Devices AMD.O slipped 0.5%, while major customers of Nvidia including Meta META.O and Microsoft MSFT.O inched up moderately.

Data analytics company Snowflake SNOW.N gained 14.4% after raising its forecast for fiscal 2026 product revenue due to AI demand.

At 06:55 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis YMcv1 were up 59 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 E-minis EScv1 were down by 1 point, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis NQcv1 were down 18.5 points, or 0.08%.

The other dominant theme that has lifted the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX to record highs has been expectations that the Federal Reserve could lower interest rates for the first time this year in September.

Futures tracking the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 small-caps index RTYcv1 gained 0.7% before the bell, while S&P 500 futures were just shy of a record high.

Traders are pricing in an 88.8% chance of a September rate-cut, according to data compiled by LSEG. However, any spike in inflation according to the Fed's preferred gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, expected on Friday, could temper those expectations.

Thursday will bring a weekly report on jobless claims along with a second estimate on quarterly gross domestic product.

Uncertainty also remains regarding central bank independence while deciding monetary policy after U.S. President Donald Trump's attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook earlier this week.

Among others, cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike CRWD.O dropped 3.7% after forecasting weak third-quarter revenue.

Discount store operator Dollar General DG.N surged 9.2% after raising annual forecasts, while packaging food company Hormel Foods HRL.N lost 6.4% after its quarterly profit forecast missed expectations.