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EMERGING MARKETS-Rising dollar weighs on Latam FX, markets digest US-Ukraine talks

ReutersAug 18, 2025 8:49 PM
  • Trump says US would help with Ukraine's security in peace deal
  • Bolivia's dollar bond hits record high after election
  • Chile's economy expands in Q2, stocks at record high
  • MSCI Latam FX down 0.5%, stocks flat

By Pranav Kashyap and Purvi Agarwal

- Most emerging market assets were subdued on Monday as investors digested the outcome of a key meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian and European leaders, while currencies in Latin America faced pressure from a stronger dollar.

Trump said that a peace agreement for the war in Ukraine is attainable and that the U.S. would help Europe in providing security for Ukraine as part of any deal.

Ukraine's dollar bonds reversed course to gain on the day, with the one maturing in 2034 US903724CA89=TE rising 1.3 cents on the dollar. Russia's rouble RUB= edged up 0.1% against the dollar, according to over-the-counter market data.

"It will certainly feed into risk-on appetite, so that is good for emerging markets ... we could see declines in oil, that means lower inflation expectations, which in turn mean lower Fed rates," said Felipe Barragan, research strategist at Pepperstone.

In South America, Bolivia's international dollar bond maturing in 2030 surged to a record high, rising three cents to 79.79, Tradeweb data showed, as early official results pointed to the ruling Movement for Socialism party's worst election defeat in a generation.

"For the markets, it must be a relief to see the leftist or radical leftist candidates not really getting a lot of traction. So overall a positive, but not the final nail in the coffin," said Eduardo Ordonez Bueso, emerging markets debt portfolio manager at Bankinvest.

Meanwhile, data showed Brazil's economic activity contracted in June, reinforcing signs of a slowdown under high borrowing costs, which have been held near a 20-year high of 15%.

Brazil's real BRL= slipped 0.6%.

Trump's tariffs complicate the central bank's balancing act as it continues to assess whether the 15% rate is adequate to curb inflation.

"Historically, Brazilian equities have risen at a time of easing and it certainly is not being priced fully into Brazilian equities so far," Barragan added.

On the day, the dollar index =USD rose 0.3% as expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts eased following recent economic data, though a September rate reduction remained priced in.

MSCI's gauge of regional currencies .MILA00000CUS fell 0.5%, with Mexico's peso MXN= slipping 0.2%.

In contrast, Peru's sol PEN= gained 0.5% in light trading volumes.

Regional stock indexes, however, showed mixed performance, with Brazil's benchmark .BVSP rising 0.8%, while Mexico's .MXX and Argentina's .MERV declined. Colombia's stock market was closed for a public holiday.

Chilean stocks .SPIPSA climbed 1% to a record high after data showed the economy grew 0.4% in the second quarter, marking the fourth straight quarter of sequential growth but indicating a slowdown.

However, a broader gauge of regional equities .MILA00000PUS remained flat.

Latin American currencies have largely traded in ranges amid mixed U.S. economic data, as markets assess the interest rate outlook. Attention now turns to the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Hole symposium, set for August 21–23, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to outline the policy framework and economic outlook.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1273.04

0.05

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2342.59

0.00

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

137383.82

0.77

Mexico IPC .MXX

58217.07

-0.18

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8834.64

1.09

Argentina Merval .MERV

2185564.23

-0.14

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

-

-

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.4333

-0.61

Mexico peso MXN=

18.759

-0.19

Chile peso CLP=

963.9

-0.19

Colombia peso COP=

4029.69

-0.35

Peru sol PEN=

3.541

0.46

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1292.5

-1.35

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1320

-1.89

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