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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks retreat after hot US inflation data shakes Fed rate cut hopes

ReutersAug 14, 2025 4:41 PM
  • Wall Street stocks pull back from record highs
  • Risk-on rally pauses after sharp jump in US producer prices
  • Longer-dated Treasuries spooked by rising inflation pressures
  • German Bunds and UK gilts hit by selling pressure
  • Commodities markets subdued ahead of Friday's US-Russia summit

By Chibuike Oguh and Naomi Rovnick

- Global stocks retreated from record highs on Thursday while U.S. Treasury yields rose after market expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve were shaken by stronger-than-expected inflation data.

U.S. producer prices rose 0.9% in July, the Labor Department reported, surpassing consensus forecasts for a 0.2% gain. Investors have been watching for signs of inflation pressures from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

Wall Street stocks fell, with the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulling back from record highs reached on Wednesday. Materials, real estate and industrials stocks were driving losses. Communication services and healthcare stocks were gaining.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 0.38%, the S&P 500 .SPX slid 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC dropped 0.30%.

European stocks .STOXX held onto gains from earlier in the day and were last 0.49% higher. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe .MIWD00000PUS fell 0.37% to 949.56, taking a breather a day after hitting an all-time high.

"We have been too anxious to draw a conclusion that the economy is fine; it's not overheated," said Peter Andersen, founder of Andersen Capital Management in Boston. "But this wholesale data does show that perhaps there is some inflation working and we shouldn't be so quick to conclude, we need to cut interest rates."

U.S. Treasury yields leaped after the inflation data as expectations for jumbo Fed rate cuts briefly faded. The two-year note yield US2YT=RR was last up 5.4 basis points at 3.741%. The benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield US10YT=RR rose 5.1 basis points to 4.291%.

Money markets showed traders still almost unanimously expect the Fed to cut borrowing costs next month, although some traders have lowered their bets. Markets are predicting a 92.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, down slightly from 94.3% on Wednesday but up from nearly 59%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"It reinforces the case that the Fed might say we still don't have a clear picture yet based on the tariffs in the employment picture to take any action and I would expect that they would tend to be neutral and make no change in September as opposed to the majority of opinions out there," Anderson said.

UK and euro area government bonds sold off alongside Treasuries.

The benchmark 10-year Bund yield DE10YT=RR was up 50 bps at 2.71% and Britain's equivalent gilt yield GB10YT=RR rose 4 bps to 4.643%.

About 70% of global investors expect U.S. stagflation, with growth slowing as consumer price rises accelerate, to become the dominant market narrative within three months, a Bank of America survey found this week.

The dollar rose against major peers after falling in the prior session. It strengthened 0.27% to 147.78 against the Japanese yen and was up 0.39% at 0.808 against the Swiss franc CHF=EBS.

The euro EUR=EBS fell 0.55% to $1.164. The dollar index tracking the greenback against peers including the euro and Japan's yen =USD edged 0.6% higher.

Trump on Wednesday threatened "severe consequences" if Russian leader Vladimir Putin did not agree to peace in Ukraine and has also floated the idea of a second summit that would include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose from almost a two-month low with a 1.7% jump to $66.75 a barrel LCOc1 and U.S. crude added 1.8% to $63.77 CLc1.

Spot gold XAU= fell 0.39% to $3,341.31 an ounce. U.S. gold futures GCc1 fell 0.66% to $3,336.50 an ounce.

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