LIVE MARKETS-Russian gas taps to Europe unlikely to flow anytime soon
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RUSSIAN GAS TAPS TO EUROPE UNLIKELY TO FLOW ANYTIME SOON
U.S. President Trump is set to meet his Russian counterpart on Friday, aiming to reach a ceasefire in Ukraine, but Goldman Sachs isn't expecting Russian gas supply dynamics to change dramatically even if a deal is brokered.
European gas prices TRNLTTFMc1 are little changed since Friday's announcement of a meeting, which GS believes shows the market is pricing in no significant shift in Russian gas or LNG supply.
"Even under a peace deal scenario, we believe that a restoration of Russian pipeline flows to Western Europe remains unlikely in the near term," said Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs.
Dart notes that flows through the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany and Poland's Yamal pipeline remain "politically challenging".
Flows through Ukraine might be conditioned on new long-term deals with European companies, but Dart views this as unlikely based on conversations with European industrial companies.
For now, GS is maintaining its TTF price forecast at 37 euros per megawatt hour for the balance of 2025 and 30 euro for 2026, given their base case is for no incremental Russian pipeline gas or LNG exports going forward.
(Samuel Indyk)
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