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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam FX hits record high, stocks gain after US Fed shake-up adds to rate cut bets

ReutersAug 8, 2025 2:47 PM
  • Trump to nominate Miran to Fed board, rate cut bets rise
  • Romania keeps key interest rate at 6.50%
  • Chile's consumer prices rise more than expected in July
  • MSCI Latam FX, stocks indexes set for weekly gains

By Sukriti Gupta and Purvi Agarwal

- A gauge of Latin American currencies hit a record high while stocks rose on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump's pick for a Federal Reserve governor amplified expectations of a more dovish monetary policy, despite U.S. tariffs.

Trump on Thursday said he would nominate economist Stephen Miran for a short-term Fed seat, a replacement for Governor Adriana Kugler following her surprise resignation last week.

Equities in emerging markets have been capitalizing on rising speculation that the Fed will deliver interest rate cuts as soon as September after a bleak U.S. jobs report last week, and Miran's potential nomination has added to that.

MSCI's Latam currency gauge .MILA00000CUS advanced 0.8% to a record high, and was set for its longest gaining streak since late April.

Colombia's peso COP= rose the most, up 0.4%, set for its seventh sessions of gains as well, its longest run since December 2024.

Chile's peso CLP= climbed 0.2%. Data showed consumer prices rose more than expected in July, from the previous month.

Mexico's peso MXN= advanced 0.3%, a day after the central bank delivered a 25 basis point cut.

"The market reacted encouragingly to the nomination of Miran ... It tilts the FOMC a bit more on the dovish side, reinforcing this downward expectation on the dollar," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

"A lot of the Latin countries have positive real interest rates, a big factor underpinning their currencies, even if the dollar is strengthening."

The Latam stocks gauge .MILA00000PUS rose 0.5%, on course for its best weekly showing since late April, as most regional equities gained. Colombian stocks .COLCAP gained 0.5% to their highest since September 2014.

A 3.8% decline in Petrobras PETR3.SA, after its quarterly results, dragged on heavyweight Brazilian equities .BVSP.

Meanwhile, some caution lingered over how U.S. tariffs, which came into effect on Thursday, would impact countries that have not yet agreed on a trade deal with Washington.

India, facing additional 25% tariffs, has put on hold its plans to procure new U.S. weapons and aircraft, three Indian officials familiar with the matter told Reuters.

The country faces one of the highest tariff rates, along with fellow BRICS group members Brazil and South Africa. This has pushed them to look for a united response to the sweeping duties.

They are considering measures to mitigate the potential tariff impact, with Brazil weighing pulling $5.5 billion from a domestic development bank to support local firms.

"There's still so much uncertainty with tariffs, perhaps there'll be room for negotiations. Maybe that's why markets are ignoring the threat of higher tariffs and focusing more on the fundamentals," said Haddad.

Elsewhere, Romania's central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% as expected.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1253.47

-0.55

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2326.4

0.52

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

135974.27

-0.41

Mexico IPC .MXX

58157.43

-0.18

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8420.63

0.71

Argentina Merval .MERV

2329247.84

-0.84

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1782.97

0.48

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.4211

0.04

Mexico peso MXN=

18.5577

0.25

Chile peso CLP=

965.5

0.22

Colombia peso COP=

4031.62

0.36

Peru sol PEN=

3.5367

0.04

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1326

-3.85

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1305

-0.77

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