FACTBOX-Brokerages expect global growth to slow in late 2025 on tariffs, geopolitical tensions
August 8 (Reuters) - Major brokerages, including Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan and Morgan Stanley, have forecast slower global growth for late 2025 due to economic uncertainty fueled by tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
The U.S. economy is expected to grow between 1% and 2% this year, according to estimates from leading brokerages, as tariffs push prices higher, while softening labor markets help avoid a potential wage-price spiral.
Brokerages including Goldman Sachs and HSBC now expect the benchmark S&P 500 .SPX to end the year above the 6,000 mark as strength in corporate earnings and easing trade uncertainty support the broader U.S. equity market.
Meanwhile, central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, are on pause, waiting to see how the situation plays out.
Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.
U.S. recession forecasts:
Brokerage | Recession Probability |
Goldman Sachs | 30% |
J.P.Morgan | 40% |
Barclays | No recession |
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY
| USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 5300 | 3.80% | 1.23 | 130 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 6600 | 4.35% | 1.20 (next 12 months) | 135 (next 12 months) | 7 (next 12 months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 6200 | 4.00% | 1.16 (Dec-25) | 140 (Dec-25) | 7.10(Dec-25) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 6300-6500 | 4.00%-4.50% | 1.08-1.12 | 144-148 |
|
Societe Generale | 6750 | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 |
Deutsche Bank | 6550 | 4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.10 | 145 | 7.35 |
Nomura |
| 4.15% | 1.03 | 135 | 6.93 |
Morgan Stanley | 6500 | 4% (Q4'25) | 1.08 (Q4'25) | 141 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) |
J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.14 (Q4'25) | 140 (Q4'25) | 7.60 |
BofA Global Research | 6300 | 4.50% | 1.17 | 155 | 7.30 |
Wells Fargo |
| 4.20% | 0.98 (Q4'25) | 154 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) |
BMO Capital Markets | 6100 |
|
|
|
|
Jefferies | 5300 | 4.43% |
|
|
|
Barclays | 6050 | 4.00% (Q4'25) | 1.06 (Q4'25) | 144 (Q4'25) | 7.50 (Q4'25) |
Piper Sandler | 6600 |
|
|
|
|
Berenberg |
| 4.90% | 1.16 | 140 | 7.30 |
BNP Paribas |
| 4.65% (Q4'25) | 1.00 (Q4'25) | 156 (Q4'25) |
|
Canaccord Genuity | 6325 |
|
|
|
|
Citigroup | 6,300 | 4.20% (Q4'25) | 1.05 | 139 |
|
ING |
|
| 1.02 | 160 | 7.35 |
HSBC | 6400 |
|
|
|
|
Evercore ISI | 6800 |
|
|
|
|
Peel Hunt |
| 4.20% | 1.11 (Q4'25) |
|
|
RBC Capital Markets | 6250 | 4% |
|
|
|
Oppenheimer Asset Management | 7100 |
|
|
|
|
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 2.5% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 6% |
Goldman Sachs | 2.4% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 6.6% |
Barclays | 2.7% | 1.4% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 6.9% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.9% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 6.4% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 1.0% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 6.0% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.7% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 6.0% |
Wells Fargo | 2.7% | 1.6% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 5.9% |
Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% |
|
Citigroup | 2.4% | 1.4% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 2.0% | 6.7% |
Nomura | 2.9% | 1.4% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 6.6% |
BofA Global Research | 3.0% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.4% |
Deutsche Bank | 2.9% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 1.1% |
|
|
Berenberg | 2.3% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 6.5% |
BNP Paribas |
| 2.1% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 6.2% (March 2026) |
Peel Hunt |
| 1.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.3% |
ING |
| 2.0% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% |
|
Jefferies |
| 2.4% (Q4/Q4) |
|
|
|
|
Standard Chartered | 1.50% | 4.8% | 1% | 1.10% | 6.6% | |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Brokerages' 2025 forecast for S&P 500 index target
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