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EMERGING MARKETS-Indonesian rupiah, Thai baht lead Asia forex lower as US tariff deadline looms

ReutersJul 29, 2025 5:42 AM
  • Nations race to seal U.S. deals ahead of August 1 deadline
  • Fed, BOJ, MAS policy meetings due this week
  • Renewed dollar strength weighs on EM currencies

By Roushni Nair

- Asian currencies weakened on Tuesday, led by the Thai baht and the Indonesian rupiah, as investors focused on upcoming U.S. trade negotiations and the looming August 1 tariff deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Thailand expects to conclude trade talks with the United States, its largest export market, before the deadline and avoid tariffs as high as 36%, Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said, riding the momentum from Trump's deal with Europe over the weekend.

The Thai baht THB=TH weakened as much as 0.5% to 32.51 per dollar, its biggest intraday decline since July 9, while Indonesia's rupiah IDR= fell 0.4% to a one-month low of 16,400.

Taiwan's dollar TWD=TP dropped more than 0.4% to its lowest point since July 1, and currencies across the region declined, with investors pondering over the implications for growth and inflation on the global economy from the tariffs. MKTS/GLOB

Trump's trade deal with Europe initially lifted market sentiment, but investors quickly realised the terms largely favoured the United States. This reinforced dollar strength, adding pressure on regional currencies. USD/

Officials in Seoul are scrambling in an all-out push to clinch a trade deal ahead of the August 1 deadline to remove or reduce tariffs threatened by Trump against the country's key industrial exports to the United States.

The urgency underscores a broader regional race to secure favourable terms after Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan already clinched trade agreements with Washington, creating a precedent for other Asian economies.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese economic leaders held more than five hours of talks in Stockholm on Monday, working to resolve disputes fuelling the economic conflict between the world's two largest economies and extend their current truce by three months.

Regional equities fell alongside currencies, with Taiwan's benchmark index .TWII slipping more than 1% to a one-week low. Singapore .STI and the Philippine .PSI markets dropped more than 0.5% each, while Indonesian .JKSE and South Korean .KS11 shares bucked the trend, posting modest gains.

Central bank meetings loom large for the remainder of the week, with the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Monetary Authority of Singapore set to announce policy decisions this week.

"With no policy changes expected from the BOJ, Fed, or MAS this week, EM Asian currencies are unlikely to see significant movement from these central bank meetings," said Chandresh Jain, rates strategist at BNP Paribas.

"However, if MAS surprises by cutting the SGD NEER slope, it could initially drive USDSGD (the U.S. Dollar-Singapore Dollar pair) higher."

HIGHLIGHTS:

Thailand-Cambodia border calm as military-level talks postponed

Indonesia's FDI drop 6.95% y/y in Q2, biggest fall since 2020

Asian stocks and currencies as of 0421 GMT

COUNTRY

FX RIC

FX DAILY %

FX YTD %

INDEX

STOCKS DAILY %

STOCKS YTD %

Japan

JPY=

+0.09

+5.92

.N225

-0.85

3.41

China

CNY=CFXS

+0.02

+1.70

.SSEC

-0.08

7.26

India

INR=IN

-0.25

-1.46

.NSEI

-0.02

4.36

Indonesia

IDR=

-0.34

-1.83

.JKSE

-0.05

7.50

Malaysia

MYR=

-0.28

+5.38

.KLSE

0.09

-6.79

Philippines

PHP=

-0.25

+1.39

.PSI

-0.68

-2.95

S.Korea

KRW=KFTC

-0.17

+5.81

.KS11

0.58

34.53

Singapore

SGD=

+0.00

+6.13

.STI

-0.41

11.52

Taiwan

TWD=TP

-0.44

+10.55

.TWII

-0.83

0.80

Thailand

THB=TH

-0.40

+5.64

.SETI

0.12

-12.97

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