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EMERGING MARKETS-Strong dollar weighs on Latam FX after Trump's trade deals; stocks plummet

ReutersJul 28, 2025 2:57 PM
  • Trump shortens Russia ceasefire deadline, rouble weakens
  • Femsa tumbles after decline in Q2 net profit
  • MSCI Latam stocks hit seven-week low
  • Interest rate decisions awaited in U.S., Brazil this week

By Purvi Agarwal and Ankita Yadav

- Most Latin American currencies weakened against a stronger dollar and stocks slumped on Monday, as investors focused on a slew of central bank decisions and U.S. economic data while monitoring trade negotiations ahead of the August 1 deadline.

The United States scored an agreement with the European Union on Sunday, imposing a base rate of 15% on most goods imports from the bloc - half the initially proposed rate of 30%.

The dollar index =USD, which fell last week, was trading up 0.7%, pressuring most Latam currencies, with MSCI's index .MILA00000CUS declining 0.7%, set for its steepest one-day decline in more than two weeks.

Colombia's COP= and Mexico's MXN= pesos were the worst hit, down 0.6% and 0.7% respectively.

"The dollar's strength today may reflect the perception that the new U.S.-EU deal favors the U.S., it could be a celebration of the U.S.'s power in negotiations," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie.

"But the dollar's strength merely reflects a feeling that the U.S. is re-engaging with the rest of the world."

Meanwhile, Trump set a new 10-12 day deadline for Russia over its war in Ukraine. Earlier this month, Trump had floated "very severe tariffs" on Russia if there was no peace deal with Ukraine in 50 days.

Russia's rouble RUB= fell over 2% against the dollar, over-the-counter market data showed, to an 11-week low. Oil prices soared.

Last week, some trade optimism had pushed investors to take on more risk after the U.S. signed a trade deal with Japan and smaller trading partners, with many EM assets logging weekly gains.

However, caution has now prevailed as markets brace for an action-packed week with several central bank interest rate decisions pending, in the U.S., Brazil, Chile and Colombia among others, along with a barrage of economic data from the U.S.

On the day, Brazil's real BRL= fell 0.3%, while Chile's peso CLP= was down 0.5%.

Regional stocks were mixed, with heavyweight Brazilian .BVSP and Chilean .SPIPSA equities down 0.8% and 1% respectively.

Mexican stocks .MXX fell 1%, with a 5.5% decline in Femsa FEMSAUBD.MX after the retailer's net profit declined in the second-quarter.

On the flip side, bourses in Colombia .COLCAP and Argentina .MERV gained 1.6% and 0.4% respectively.

Still, the index tracking Latin American stocks .MILA00000PUS plunged 1.5%, trading at its lowest in more than seven weeks.

Markets in Peru were closed for a public holiday.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1254.18

-0.29

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2232.44

-1.48

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

132451.18

-0.8

Mexico IPC .MXX

56735.86

-1.02

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

8140.01

-1

Argentina Merval .MERV

2204797.61

0.35

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1736.12

1.57

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.5812

-0.33

Mexico peso MXN=

18.6495

-0.69

Chile peso CLP=

968.11

-0.5

Colombia peso COP=

4161.33

-0.62

Peru sol PEN=

-

-

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1280

-0.39

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1295

0

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