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South African rand falls before expected rate cut, looming US tariffs

ReutersJul 28, 2025 2:47 PM

- The South African rand fell on Monday as the dollar gained on global markets, with analysts saying its decline was exacerbated by expectations for a local interest rate cut and jitters over looming tariffs on South African exports to the United States.

At 1430 GMT the rand traded at 17.8650 against the dollar ZAR=D3, about 0.9% weaker than Friday's closing level.

The dollar was up 0.7% against a basket of global currencies =USD.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the South African Reserve Bank to announce another 25 basis point reduction in its repo rate ZAREPO=ECI on Thursday, reducing South Africa's relative interest rate return compared to less risky markets.

Four days before U.S. President Donald Trump's 30% tariffs on South African goods take effect on Friday, Pretoria is yet to agree a trade deal with Washington, with its agriculture and automotive sectors bracing for potential job losses.

Domestic data releases this week include June money supply ZAM3=ECI and private sector credit extension ZACRED=ECI on Tuesday, June budget figures ZABUDM=ECI on Wednesday, and June producer inflation ZAPPIY=ECI and trade ZATBAL=ECI numbers on Thursday.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange's Top-40 index .JTOPI was last down 0.3%.

The benchmark 2035 government bond ZAR2035= was stronger, as the yield fell 4 basis points to 9.81%.

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