LIVE MARKETS-The last 6 months: 90% of MSCI indices have beaten Wall St
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THE LAST 6 MONTHS: 90% OF MSCI INDICES HAVE BEATEN WALL ST
Over 90% of MSCI country indices have outperformed Wall Street over the past 6 months.
This stat, courtesy of SentimenTrader, clearly illustrates current favour for international stocks and is driving debate over whether U.S. exceptionalism is waning.
Yet the question remains: "Can this outperformance persist as trade tensions subside?", writes Dean Christians, senior research analyst at SentimenTrader.
According to Christians, the answers lie in hindsight, but history may offer some perspective.
His research shows that historically when a significant proportion of countries outperform the U.S. over six months, that hasn't resulted in a sustained global leadership.
"Despite recent outperformance and attractive valuations, the narrative of a 'great rotation' into global equities appears more like a head fake than a durable shift," he says.
"When global equities have outperformed the U.S. as sharply as they have over the past six months, it has generally been a positive signal for stocks across the globe. However, this hasn't translated into sustained international leadership compared to the S&P 500."
For now, Christians advises a U.S. equity bias with a tilt toward cyclicals, especially technology.
Meanwhile, UBS Global Wealth Management has just downgraded US stocks to neutral.
Just one month ago, when markets were panicking over Trump's Liberation Day, the Swiss bank upgraded them to attractive on the view that too much fear was priced into the market.
(Danilo Masoni)
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FOR TUESDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
STOXX MUTED AS TRADE WAR TRUCE CELEBRATION ENDS, EARNINGS RUMBLE ON CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: MOOD TEMPERS AFTER U.S.-CHINE TRUCE CLICK HERE
WITH A HIATUS IN THE TRADE WAR, IT IS BACK TO THE GRIND CLICK HERE
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