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Street View: India is Apple's "life raft supply chain" in trade war

ReutersMay 2, 2025 9:11 AM

** Apple AAPL.O sees about $900 mln in tariff-related costs this quarter amid the US-China trade war

** CEO Tim Cook says most iPhones sold in US this quarter will be India-made, and most iPads, Macs, Apple Watches will be from Vietnam; vast majority of non-US sales will still be from China-made products

** Also cuts share buyback program by $10 bln; shares down 2.77% at $207.42 premarket on Friday

MITIGATING RISKS WITH STRATEGIC PRODUCTION SHIFTS

** Morgan Stanley ("overweight," PT:$235) says Apple's supply chain shift can significantly reduce the tariff impact

** Wedbush ("outperform," PT: $270) says, "India will be the 'life raft supply chain' that should help Apple navigate this unprecedented tense environment in China"

** Morningstar (fair value:$200) says since China-made iPhones are the biggest tariff risks, "We expect more iPhone production to move to India as a result"

** TD Cowen ("buy," PT:$275) says India is now producing most iPhones for US demand, exceeding expectations and Vietnam's capacity is sufficient for US demand for Macs, iPads, and wearables

** Still, J.P. Morgan ("overweight," PT:$240) expects deceleration in YOY iPhone rev growth in Q4 and lower product gross margins due to the tariff challenges

** Says besides tariffs, Apple faces local competition in markets like China and India, which can use pricing strategies to their advantage

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