
TORONTO, April 29 (Reuters) - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals retained power in parliamentary elections but fell short of the outright majority Carney had sought to help him negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump on tariffs that are threatening Canada's economy.
Market reaction was muted. The Canadian dollar CAD= was barely changed at 1.3830 U.S. dollar, or 72.31 U.S. cents, Canada's 10-year government bond yield CA10YT=RR was up less than a basis point at 3.174% and futures on the S&P/TSX 60 Index SXFc1 gained 0.1%.
Here are some comments:
ANTHONY VISANO, HEAD OF INVESTMENT RESEARCH, KINGWEST AND CO
"The uncertainty of trade still rules the day. Until we get certainty around cabinet appointments and negotiations around NAFTA 2.0, I think we're still kind of in this uncertain period. But broadly speaking, from our perspective, we're quite optimistic and excited about Canada's prospects.
"There's a Canada-first mindset, some optimism around trade, inter-country trade, the willingness to get pipelines done."
BRIAN MADDEN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, FIRST AVENUE INVESTMENT COUNSEL
"Carney is going to have to choose his cabinet ministers carefully. He's going to have some people with experience running these portfolios, but he's also going to have to have enough fresh faces to send a message to the public and to the opposition party that his agenda is different than that of his predecessor."
STEPHEN BROWN, DEPUTY CHIEF NORTH AMERICA ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS
"Although the Liberals have just missed out on a majority, Prime Minister Mark Carney should still be able to implement his fiscal plans with support from the NDP or Bloc Québécois. If anything, the need to grant concessions to those parties means fiscal policy could end up even looser than the Liberals have signaled.
"That presents a modest risk to our view that the Bank of Canada will cut another three times this year, which would probably prevent the loonie and bond yields from falling by as much as we anticipate."
JIMMY JEAN AND RANDALL BARTLETT, ECONOMISTS AT DESJARDINS
"If a minority Liberal win is confirmed, Prime Minister Mark Carney will need to negotiate with the opposition parties to implement his policy agenda. As it stands, (the) Liberals would be able to pass legislation with the support of the New Democratic Party, as they did previously. In terms of executing the Liberal Party platform, this configuration could lean toward the social and cultural measures, and against broad tax cuts and fossil-fuel development."
SHAUN OSBORNE AND ERIC THEORET, STRATEGISTS AT SCOTIABANK
"The CAD slipped marginally in overnight trade but is trading little changed on the day now and USD-CAD risk reversal pricing shows little change in skew through the 1– ,3– and 6-month tenors, suggesting markets are not overly concerned about another minority government at this point - despite the challenges ahead for Canada."
CHARU CHANANA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, SAXO, SINGAPORE
"Canada’s likely Liberal minority outcome adds to uncertainty at a delicate time — with recession risks rising, tougher U.S. trade negotiations looming, and a growing need to diversify trade ties. Political fragmentation could limit the scale of fiscal stimulus for the Canadian economy, and investors may worry that Canada faces tough external negotiations without the domestic growth cushion it needs."
MATT SIMPSON, SENIOR MARKET ANALYST, CITY INDEX, BRISBANE
"If there are two things investors don't like, it's uncertainty and minority governments. Investors now have both. With legislation likely harder to pass, it could mean trade negotiations are to be less smooth. And not that they were ever likely to be smooth to begin with.
"Investors remain in watch-and-see mode, ahead of key U.S. reports this week, though news of the minority government could help USD/CAD gain a bid or two over the near term."