EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks, forex rise ahead of rate decisions; US-China trade uncertainty persists

By Pranav Kashyap

April 28 (Reuters) - Indexes tracking Latin American assets rose in cautious trade on Monday as markets navigated the murky waters of U.S.-China trade policy uncertainties and the region braced for a slew of central bank meetings.

The MSCI gauge for Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS ticked up 0.3%, after it eked out a modest gain for the previous week on Friday.

While U.S. President Donald Trump has claimed progress is being made on trade with China, and many other countries, evidence is lacking. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent failed on Sunday to back Trump's assertion that tariff talks with China were under way.

The Mexican peso MXN= slipped 0.3% against the U.S. dollar, while its stock index .MXX ticked up 0.2%.

Data revealed Mexico's unemployment rate at 2.6% in March, coupled with a trade surplus of $1.03 billion for the same period.

Analysts cautioned that Mexico's economic growth would likely stagnate this year, a consequence of the U.S. tariff shock that previously nudged the economy to the brink of technical recession, as per a Reuters poll.

The air of extreme uncertainty surrounding Trump's global trade reshuffle is expected to continue casting shadows over private spending and investment in Latin America's second-largest economy, analysts said.

In Colombia, the benchmark stock index .COLCAP tumbled as much at 1.5%, on track for its most significant intraday percentage drop in nearly three weeks.

This followed Saturday's announcement by the International Monetary Fund that it was imposing conditions on Colombia's continued eligibility for its flexible credit line.

"The IMF's decision to pause Colombia's access to its flexible credit line is not particularly concerning given the country's robust external position," said Kimberley Sperrfechter, emerging markets economist at Capital Economics.

However, she said the Fund's decision "underscores Colombia's substantial fiscal problems. The risks are skewed towards further fiscal slippage."

Colombia's central bank is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, with expectations it will maintain steady borrowing costs amid inflation concerns and global trade uncertainties. The peso COP= slipped 0.36%.

Meanwhile, Chile's peso CLP ticked 0.21% lower. Its central bank's rate decision is also scheduled for Wednesday.

In Brazil, the real BRL= appreciated by 0.45%, and the local stock market .BVSP rose by 0.5%. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad expressed optimism about the momentum building for the long-awaited ratification of the Mercosur-European Union trade agreement, as geopolitical and trade tensions increase.

Investors in the region will also monitor the upcoming meeting of BRICS foreign ministers in Rio de Janeiro.

A broader gauge for Latin American equities .MILA00000PUS climbed 0.7%, following its strongest weekly performance in over two years on Friday.

Relatively lower U.S. import tariffs on South American countries have partly protected Latin American assets from extreme selling pressures, unlike their international peers.

Meanwhile, Argentina's peso ARS= gained 0.73%, while its local stock market index .MERV rose 0.3%. Peru's sol PEN= lost 0.1%.

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies: