LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 index's strong 3-day run has set a high bar

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S&P 500 INDEX'S STRONG 3-DAY RUN HAS SET A HIGH BAR

The S&P 500 index .SPX has now risen three days in a row, and of note, each day's gain has been especially strong. Indeed, with Tuesday's 2.51% rise, Wednesday's 1.67% gain, and Thursday's 2.03% advance, the benchmark index has now rallied >1.5% on three consecutive days.

Using LSEG data back to 1928, that's only happened 38 times. The last time the SPX rose >1.5% on three straight days was in November 2020.

The SPX has only risen >1.5% on each of four straight days, nine times since 1928, with the last such occurrence in October 1982! Thus, on Friday, to keep this strong run alive, the S&P 500 may have its work cut out for it.

In any event, with the recent rally, on Thursday, the index hit an intraday high of 5,489.40, before ending at 5,484.77. This has it flirting with some significant resistance hurdles:

The SPX faces resistance at its March 31 and March 13 intraday lows at 5,488.73 and 5,504.63, as well as the 76.4%-78.6% Fibonacci retracements of the April 2-April 7 down-leg at 5,492.29-5,511.21.

In these hurdles are cleared, it can suggest the recovery off the early April trough could prove to be more than just a short-term counter-trend bounce. The index would then face the April 3 gap, which requires 5,571.48 for a fill, as well as the descending 50-day moving average (DMA), which should be around 5,635 on Friday. The 200-DMA is around 5,747.

As stands, e-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are suggesting around 15 points of downside pressure at the open.

On the downside, the April 23 gap requires a fall to 5,309.61 for a fill.

A break of the April 21 low at 5,101.63 can threaten new lows sub-4,835.04.

(Terence Gabriel)

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