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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam stocks and FX advance on higher commodity prices; focus on Trump's Fed critique

ReutersApr 22, 2025 8:26 PM
  • Latam stocks up 2.2%; FX up 0.9%
  • IMF cuts GDP growth estimates for Mexico, Brazil
  • Chile's peso tops regional peers, up 1.9%

By Pranav Kashyap, Johann M Cherian and Nikhil Sharma

- Most Latin American currencies and stocks rose on Tuesday, tracking higher commodity prices, while the focus was on U.S. President Donald Trump's recent criticism of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the ongoing global trade war.

MSCI's index for Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS climbed 0.9% to a more than two-week high. Similarly, the gauge of regional stocks .MILA00000PUS advanced 2.2%.

Advancing oil prices provided a boost to crude exporter Mexico's peso MXN=, which rose by 0.5% to touch 19.65 against the dollar.

A surge in copper prices pushed currencies of top producers of the red metal higher. Chile's peso CLP= was up 1.9% and Peru's sol PEN= gained 0.4%.

"The chances for the economy to remain relatively stable towards growth are in emerging markets, particularly Latin America since the United States seems to be isolating itself and setting itself apart from the fully globalized system," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex.

Worries about a global recession remained front and center. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth outlook for the emerging market and developing economies for this year to 3.7%, shaving off about half a percentage point on its previous estimates issued in January.

The institution expects a contraction of 0.3% for Mexico's economy, a stark reversal from a prior forecast of 1.4% growth, as U.S. tariffs begin to weigh heavily on exports. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said she disagreed with the IMF forecast.

Brazil, the largest economy in the region, is projected to slow to a 2.0% growth rate, down from an earlier estimate of 2.2%.

Trading in Brazil resumed after an extended weekend. The local currency real BRL= strengthened 1.4% against the dollar, while the main stock index Bovespa .BVSP jumped 0.9%.

Brazilian central bank governor Gabriel Galipolo said the body - one of the only central banks in the region that has hiked rates of late - is trying to assess whether interest rates are restrictive enough to curb inflation given the strength of economic activity.

Argentina's growth outlook for 2025 has been revised upwards to 5.5% from January's 5% prediction.

The peso ARS=RASL weakened 1% after rising sharply in the last session. The peso has seen immense volatility since the government disbanded longstanding currency controls earlier this month.

There was a wave of uncertainty around global markets as Trump ramped up his criticism of Fed chief Powell for not cutting rates on Monday, branding him a "major loser", initiating conversations about the president's attempt to influence the central bank and curtail its autonomy.

Elsewhere, a report said Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to halt his invasion of Ukraine across the current front line as part of efforts to reach a peace deal with the U.S.

Ukraine's sovereign dollar bonds rose, with the 2041 XS1303929894=TE maturity up over one cent on the dollar.

Stock indexes

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1072.71

0.07

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2114.71

2.19

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

130718.07

0.82

Mexico IPC .MXX

54756.08

1.86

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7809.21

0.75

Argentina MerVal .MERV

2158228.27

5.5

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1633.58

0.86

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.7273

1.37

Mexico peso MXN=

19.6551

0.35

Chile peso CLP=

941.53

1.99

Colombia peso COP=

4292

-0.22

Peru sol PEN=

3.685

0.39

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1,101.0

-0.64

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1,165.0

-1.3

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