LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 index: Might the bear be stirring?

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S&P 500 INDEX: MIGHT THE BEAR BE STIRRING?

With Monday's losses, the S&P 500 index .SPX ended at 5,158.20, putting it down 16.05% from its February 19 record closing high.

Thus, potential is building again for the benchmark index to fall into bear market territory. Therefore, traders are once again keeping support levels close at hand:

At its April 7 intraday low, the SPX was down as much as 21.31% from its record closing high. It bounced, however, off that low, before ending down 18.90% from its record close on April 8.

Despite a spectacular thrust higher on April 9, strength stalled at 5,481.34, which was just shy of key hurdles including the March 13 and March 31 lows in the 5,488.73-5,504.65 area.

With Monday's break to the downside, the SPX is back below its 89-week moving average, which now resides around 5,275.

Traders are watching support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022-February 2025 advance at 5,132.90.

A break below the April 4 low at 5,069.90 can see the SPX once again threaten bear market territory (4,915.32, -20% from its record close), as well as its April 7 intraday low at 4,835.04. The 50% retracement of the October 2022-February 2025 advance is at 4,819.51, and the January 2022 intraday high was at 4,818.62. These levels contained the early April swoon.

If broken, additional support would then be at the rising 200-WMA, which is now around 4,685. The July 2023 high was at 4,607.07 and the rising 233-WMA is now around 4,580.

Of note, when the SPX ended its 2022 bear market it did it around the 50% retracement of the March 2020-January 2022 advance, as well as these two longer-term moving averages.

In any event, e-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are rallying around 35 points, or ~0.7%, ahead of Tuesday's open. If the SPX can reclaim, and hold its 89-WMA, it can refocus on the key hurdles in the 5,500 area.

(Terence Gabriel)

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