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BofA cuts PTs of US refining stocks on potential recession risk

ReutersApr 15, 2025 2:31 PM

BofA Global Research says that while recession in the U.S. is not the most likely outcome, it will consider the potential impact of a recession on refining stocks

Says tariff uncertainty can weigh on investment, consumption and employment, creating a recessionary environment

Brokerage says tariff policy has been changing by the day; global tariff burden remains high considering a >100% rate on China and 10% blanket tariff for the rest of the world

"A recession scenario would impact refiners via falling driving-related consumption, and falling shipping volumes which would impact distillate demand" - brokerage says

Brokerage also cuts price targets on the following firms:

Company

New PT

Old PT

Upside/downside to stock's last close

Chevron CVX.N

$172

$180

27.1%

Exxon Mobil XOM.N

$114

$122

10.3%

Occidental Petroleum OXY.N

$42

$52

10.8%

Valero Energy VLO.N

$121

$143

9.7%

Phillips 66 PSX.N

$126

$147

28.8%

PBF Energy PBF.N

$14

$17

7.3% downside

Marathon Petroleum MPC.N

$137

$153

9.7%

Delek US Holdings DK.N

$12

$14

4.3% downside

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