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EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: HEAVY SELLOFF COMING
European stocks were set for a major selloff on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled larger-than-expected tariffs against trading partners, stoking fears about inflation and growth while pushing investors towards safe havens.
EuroSTOXX50 and DAX futures both fell around 1.7%, while contracts on the FTSE 100 declined by 1.3%. Wall Street futures fell even more and were last down over 3%. STXEc1, FDXc1, FFIc1
On Tradegate, a popular venue for retail traders in Germany, defence group Rheinmetall RHMG.DE and automaker Volkswagen VOWG.DE were the most executed orders, followed by American tech heavyweights Nvidia NVDA.O and Amazon AMZN.O.
Earlier in Asia, stocks dived on fears a global trade war could tip the world into recession. The European economy is highly geared towards exports and the region's equity indices have big international revenue exposure.
The region wide STOXX 600 derives only 40% of revenues from Europe, per Goldman Sachs. North America counts for 26% with the media, healthcare, food, beverage and tobacco sectors the most exposed.
Corporate news was unlikely to drive price action on Thursday as traders focused on the broad impact of escalating trade barriers and the potential for retaliation. Fund managers are likely to focus on companies with greater pricing power.
Based on the announced tariff levels, US bank Citi estimates an around 3 percentage point drag on European earnings growth this year, cutting EPS consensus growth forecast to 4%.
"Trade tensions come against... a shifting European policy backdrop, and trade negotiations could follow. However, should tariffs lead to a significant deterioration in near term economic growth, more earnings downgrades - and continued market volatility are a clear risk," write Citi strategists.
(Danilo Masoni)
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