Berenberg prefers beer and soft drinks over spirits in 2025

Berenberg says macro environment could be changing for beverage makers partly due to the Trump administration's actions and partly on lower inflation

It favours beer and soft drinks over spirits in 2025, given their lower earnings cyclicality and limited exposure to tariffs

It flags Heineken HEIN.AS as its top pick for beer, sees an interesting upside in AB InBev ABI.BR and Molson Coors TAP.N, and highlights bottler Coca-Cola HBC CCH.L among soft drinks

For spirits, the broker says large producers are in strong position to manage tariff threats, seeing Diageo DGE.L and Pernod Ricard PERP.PA as best-placed to do that

It says reducing alcohol inventories is still ongoing and is affecting the spirits makers more than beer companies

It agrees with concerns that the U.S. alcohol category could be structurally slowing, but disagrees with the assessment that the spirits category has become ex-growth

Berenberg starts coverage of 12 companies, half of them with "buy": ABInBev, Coca-Cola HBC, Diageo, Heineken, Molson Coors and Pernod Ricard

It initiates the rest with "hold": Boston Beer SAM.N, Brown-Forman BFb.N, Carlsberg CARLb.CO, Campari CPRI.MI, Rémy Cointreau RCOP.PA and Royal Unibrew RBREW.CO