LIVE MARKETS-What are the chances of a recession?

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WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF A RECESSION?

With uncertainty abounding as the world is waiting for more information on U.S. trade policies, market watchers are trying to put a number on their expectations for whether or not the U.S. economy will fall into a recession.

S&P Global ratings said in a research note issued on Wednesday that while its "base case is for a slowdown to below-trend growth" it still estimates a "25% probability of a U.S. recession starting in the next 12 months."

It said that "the prospect of tariff-fueled inflation is also muddying the waters for Fed monetary policy."

And even though the Federal Reserve kept two rate cuts on its dot plot at the end of its meeting last week, S&P Global says they now forecast one rate cut late in the year "as demand weakness outweighs inflationary pressures."

Elsewhere, EY Chief Economist Gregory Daco was more pessimistic. He wrote that “It will take more than a few tremors to bring the colosseum to its knees."

But then Daco added that "there are valid concerns about a slowdown that could morph into a recession.”

“If forced to give a subjective estimate, I would put the odds of a recession over the next 12-months around 40%,” he said.

(Sinéad Carew)

FOR WEDNESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

ACTUAL U.S. EPS GROWTH SO FAR FOR Q1 REPORTS BELOW AVERAGE - CLICK HERE

DESPITE A SHAKY START, DATATREK STICKING WITH TECH - CLICK HERE

TRUMP'S TARIFF THREAT A SILVER LINING FOR INDIA? - CLICK HERE

HOT AND COLD: DURABLE GOODS, MORTGAGES - CLICK HERE

NASDAQ DOWN MORE THAN 1% EARLY; NVIDIA LEADS WAY LOWER - CLICK HERE

CHINESE BIOTECHS RIDING THE 'DEEPSEEK SENTIMENT' WAVE, MACQUARIE ANALYSTS SAY - CLICK HERE

IF NEW HIGHS ARE IN THE CARDS, NYSE COMPOSITE MIGHT HAVE THE UPPER HAND - CLICK HERE

U.S. EQUITY UNDERPERFORMANCE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT 2025 SAY JPM - CLICK HERE

NO "NASTY SURPRISES" in CPI FOR REEVES AHEAD OF BUDGET UPDATE - CLICK HERE

DIFFICULT DAYS ARE BACK FOR DOLLAR BEARS - CLICK HERE

DECLINES AS HEALTHCARE AND AUTOS LEADS LOSSES - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: GAINS AHEAD OF UK BUDGET UPDATE - CLICK HERE

LOOKING TO APRIL 2 WITH TREPIDATION - CLICK HERE