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EMERGING MARKETS-Latin American currencies mixed, stocks slip with tariff deadline in sight

ReutersMar 24, 2025 8:19 PM
  • Latam stock index down 0.7%, FX flat
  • Mexico central bank rate decision on Thursday
  • Chile central bank raises 2025 GDP growth estimate
  • Trump hints 25% tariff on countries that buy Venezuelan oil, gas
  • Argentina stock market closed for public holiday

By Shashwat Chauhan and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

- Latin American currencies were mixed against the dollar on Monday, while an index of stocks lost ground as investors gauged fresh developments ahead of a looming deadline for U.S. reciprocal tariffs.

Ahead of the April 2 deadline, President Donald Trump said that he may give a "lot of countries" breaks on tariffs. However, he plans to announce more levies on automobiles, aluminum and pharmaceuticals in the next few days.

That followed media reports stating Trump's administration is likely to exclude a set of sector-specific tariffs.

Jefferies analysts said policy uncertainty was likely to persist until the deadline.

In Mexico, the peso MXN= - which was subject to immense volatility at the start of the year as Trump threatened tariffs - advanced 0.9% against the dollar, on pace for its strongest session since early February.

Data showed Mexico's early March inflation came in slightly below forecasts and January economic activity figures pointed to a slow down, likely keeping the Mexican central bank on a policy easing trajectory.

The Bank of Mexico is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points at its meeting on March 27, in contrast to recent decisions in Brazil and Chile.

"(Latin American) central banks seem keen on responding to domestic economic conditions rather than the Federal Reserve, but with tariffs looming all institutions are communicating a degree of caution that could eventually result in more converging monetary policy approaches going forward," analysts at Wells Fargo said.

Most EM currencies have gained ground against the greenback in 2025, as uncertainty over tariffs and growing concerns about economic growth that have weighed on the formerly buoyant dollar.

Trump also said that any country that buys oil or gas from Venezuela will pay a 25 percent tariff on trades made with the United States.

Currencies of copper producing nations in the region also got a boost as metal prices rose, with Chile's peso CLP= advancing 0.1%.

Chile's central bank raised its estimate for 2025 GDP growth to 1.75%-2.75%, from a previous forecast of 1.50%-2.50%

Brazil's real BRL= however, was down 0.5%, on pace for its third straight day of declines.

Brazil's Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that the government is sticking to next year's primary surplus target even though it will be a challenge.

MSCI's gauge for Latin American stocks .MILA00000PUS fell 0.7%, as a 0.9% fall in heavyweight Brazil .BVSP kept the index under pressure. Brazilian stocks were on pace for their worst session in nearly two weeks.

Argentina equity markets were closed for a public holiday. A report on Friday said the IMF will discuss a new $20 billion loan for the country this week.

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Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 2005 GMT:

Latin American market prices from Reuters

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1135.96

0.4

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2106.65

-0.67

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

131310.85

-0.78

Mexico IPC .MXX

52679.33

0.01

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7632.66

0.62

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1608.85

0.07

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.7548

-0.47

Mexico peso MXN=

20.051

0.85

Chile peso CLP=

927.84

0.07

Colombia peso COP=

4142.63

0.18

Peru sol PEN=

3.648

-0.41

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1068

0.09

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1260

0.40

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