LIVE MARKETS-Tight German vote: "No less than 489"

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TIGHT GERMAN VOTE: "NO LESS THAN 489"

Germany's landmark reform of its debt brake faces critical votes this week, with Deutsche Bank predicting a high-suspense finish despite a broad agreement among major parties.

The Bundestag lower house is expected to vote on the fiscal package later on Tuesday, a move seen as essential for unlocking much-needed investment in Europe's biggest economy.

"The bulk of the execution risk has been averted," DB economists write. "Still there continues to be political noise and minor sources of uncertainty, ranging from the possibility of individual MPs dissenting in today's vote to a potential lack of a two-thirds majority in the upper house vote on Friday".

For the necessary two-thirds majority in the Bundestag, the CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens need "no less than 489" of 733 votes.

"We expect the vote to be tight due to dissenting MPs or MPs being on sick leave, but the landmark fiscal package to eventually pass" they say.

The Bundesrat vote of regional governments is due on Friday.

While Bavaria's support has lowered the hurdle for the reform to pass, some worries linger.

DB says states with Left or BSW party involvement could withhold crucial votes. The FDP's stance in states where they are part of government coalitions adds further uncertainty.

"Party politics matters at the regional level, too".

(Danilo Masoni)

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