LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 index: Might the seasonal change spark a fresh start?

ReutersMar 17, 2025 1:03 PM

U.S. equity index futures mixed, little changed
Feb Retail Sales MM < est; Ex-Autos MM in-line with est
Mar NY Fed Mfg index -20 vs -1.5 estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.5%
Dollar slips; gold, bitcoin ~flat; crude rallies >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.32%

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S&P 500 INDEX: MIGHT THE SEASONAL CHANGE SPARK A FRESH START?

Last Thursday, the S&P 500 index .SPX ended down 10.1% from its February 19 record close, confirming it's been in a correction since that date. And, from its February 19 record intraday high into last Thursday's intraday low, the benchmark index lost as much as 10.46%.

However, on Friday, the SPX surged more than 2% for its biggest daily gain since November of last year.

Meanwhile, traders with an astro-focus may look for either an acceleration of the prevailing trend, or a reversal, around the summer and winter solstices, as well as the fall and spring equinoxes.

The spring equinox in the northern hemisphere occurs this Thursday, March 20 at 5:01 a.m. EDT.

Just looking back over the past six years or so, a number of major S&P 500 reversals, or strong thrusts, have kicked off around these potential turn dates:

Given that the SPX has collapsed into this equinox, it now remains to be seen if its orb of influence (say +/- 1-2 weeks) will prevail, and a significant low did, indeed, form last Thursday.

The SPX ended Friday at 5,638.94.

On the upside, the index faces hurdles at the Fibonacci-based 233-day moving average (DMA), as well as the closely followed 200-DMA, which should reside around 5,660 and 5,745 on Monday.

On the downside, Fibonacci retracement support is in 5,520-5,512 area.

A break of last Thursday's 5,504.65 intraday low can suggest risk to the next significant support in the 5,402.62-5,400 area, which includes the September 2024 low and the upper boundary of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud.

(Terence Gabriel)

FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

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EUROPE, CHINA SHINE AS US EXCEPTIONALISM FADES - CLICK HERE

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